2026 Charles Schwab Challenge Picks & Predictions: PGA Longshots
The 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge is set to tee off from Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas, this week. Golfers who attended the CJ Cup Byron Nelson will only need an hour to travel from McKinney, although they should prepare for a bigger challenge at Colonial.
Colonial plays as a par 70 at just under 7,300 yards. Bentgrass greens are small at 5,000 square feet on average, while bermudagrass fairways and short TifTuf bermudagrass rough comprise the other surfaces. Putting speeds should top out at 13 feet, while narrow tree-lined fairways demand tee-to-green accuracy.
I’ll be honest, I thought I had written up Wyndham Clark as one of my CJ Cup Byron Nelson PGA Longshots last week. At 125-1, Clark’s red-hot closing round at 11-under-par was more than enough to cash his Top 20 Finishing Position prop at +170 that I wrote up in my CJ Cup Byron Nelson Best Bets article. However, I failed to reference Clark in my longshot piece, for which I’m issuing a public apology.
We’ve seen three straight outright winners at 125-1 or longer on the PGA Tour heading into the Charles Schwab Challenge. Let’s find the top longshot prospects to lock in ahead of Round 1.
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2026 Charles Schwab Challenge Picks & Predictions: PGA Longshots
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Johnny Keefer (+8000)
25-year-old Johnny Keefer is riding momentum into Colonial. He just logged a T9 finish at TPC Craig Ranch on Sunday, including a closing round 63.
Yes, this is his tournament debut. However, Keefer profiles well, ranked 17th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 42nd in SG: Approach.
He’s fourth at greens in regulation rate and second in proximity, so at 80-1, let’s start our longshot betting card at the Charles Schwab Challenge with Keefer.
Jordan Smith (+8000)
Jordan Smith is also available to bet in the 80-1 range in the outright winner betting market. The Englishman has regressed since a solo third at the Valspar Championship and a T16 at the RBC Heritage, which is why we’re landing such a big number on him this week.
Smith is another debutant at Colonial. However, he’s ranked 33rd or better in SG: Off-the-Tee and in SG: Approach this season.
Ninth at finding greens in regulation could help Smith separate from the field. However, he’ll need to refine his putter to contend for his first PGA Tour win.
Jackson Suber (+12500)
We saw Jackson Suber log his first top 10 finish of the season with a strong solo-fourth effort at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson on Sunday. The 26-year-old carded a 61 and a 63, marking his second straight top 20 finish.
Suber turned in a pedestrian T53 finish during his debut at Colonial in 2025. In 2026, he’s set to make a much better result, ranked 14th in SG: Approach, including 15th for greens in regulation hit and seventh in proximity.
Let’s close out with a 125-1 outright winner ticket on Jackson Suber to nab his first PGA Tour win at an event that’s yielded unlikely winners in recent years.