2026 Farmers Insurance Open Picks & Predictions: PGA Longshots
Following Scottie Scheffler’s four-stroke win to gain his first victory at The American Express, the PGA Tour heads to La Jolla, California, for the 2026 Farmers Insurance Open. Hosted at legendary Torrey Pines, the North and South Courses will be played once each, before golfers who make the cut return to the more difficult and lengthy North track on Saturday and Sunday.
Scheffler isn’t going to be in the field this week. Instead, there are other big names in attendance, including the return of five-time major champion, Brooks Koepka. Koepka’s joined by Xander Schauffele, who opens as the outright betting favorite at +1300 odds. Ludvig Åberg and Patrick Cantlay are the other two favorites inside of +2000 odds.
We came fairly close to cashing Wyndham Clark as an 80-1 longshot winner at The American Express last week. Clark managed a T13 finish after sitting T6 heading into Round 4. A flat even par finish kept Clark from contending, although he would’ve had to shoot -8-under-par to beat Scheffler. My other two longshot recommendations, Sami Valimaki (+12500) and Kevin Roy (+15000), both missed the cut.
I’ve got three more PGA longshots to sprinkle on for the upcoming 2026 Farmers Insurance Open. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more free bets and PGA Tour analysis throughout the 2026 PGA Tour season.
2026 Farmers Insurance Open: PGA Longshots
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Samuel Stevens (+4000)
Although +4000 odds are fringe for a longshot on the PGA Tour, Samuel Stevens is still good value in this range within the outright winner betting market. Stevens is coming off a strong finish at The American Express, carding a T6 finish with a -5-under-par scorecard on Sunday.
Stevens logged a solo runner-up finish at the 2025 Farmers Insurance Open behind Harris English. He’ll have plenty of confidence teeing off at one of the PGA Tour’s most intense, difficult, and lengthy courses.
In 2026, Stevens is ranked 32nd in total strokes gained. He’s 31st SG: Approach, 25th in driving distance, and 27th for greens hit in regulation at 78.4 percent. That’s why he’s top-20 in scoring average, birdie average, and par 4 scoring.
At +4000 odds, bet on Stevens to finally punch his first PGA Tour win at Torrey Pines this weekend.
Andrew Novak (+7500)
Andrew Novak was right behind English and Stevens at this event in 2025. The 30-year-old had a strong campaign last season, and now, he’ll step onto the tee box looking to shake off a missed cut at The American Express.
Novak was ranked 49th SG: Putting last year. If he can figure out his short game, Novak is primed to make a run up the leaderboard this week. In 2026, he also boasts quality metrics in proximity (22nd), greens in regulation percentage (31st), and leads the PGA Tour in approach shots from 200+ yards.
Let’s continue to target some of last year’ strongest golfers and invest in Andrew Novak’s +7500 odds in the outright winner betting market.
Alex Smalley (+7500)
We’ll wrap up in this 75-1 range and bet on Alex Smalley. Smalley has yet to break T40 on either leaderboard he’s played, however, he’s ranked 39th in total strokes gained.
Upon closer inspection, Smalley is also 46th SG: Putting, 59th SG: Off-the-Tee, 13th total driving, eighth driving distance, and 42nd birdie average. He’s never finished higher than T37 at the Farmers Insurance Open, while missing the cut in back-to-back outings.
It’s a longshot and Smalley certainly has areas to improve upon, primarily his short game. However, with a powerful driver, in addition to never shooting higher than a 71 in any round this season, we’ve got a chance to hit on Smalley at huge odds as he seeks his first PGA Tour win.
Bet on Smalley at +7500 odds for the final longshot golfer in the outright winner market at the 2026 Farmers Insurance Open.