2026 NCAA Tournament Bracketology Predictions

by Ryan Coleman |
Mar 08, 2026

You can smell March Madness with postseason underway! We wrap up the regular season today with some auto-bids locked in. Even just typing out "auto-bids" is giving me goosebumps. It really is March. If you're just joining us, welcome. You may have missed a lot, but don't worry. I'll be here to catch you up.

This article provides a holistic view of the Men’s NCAA College Basketball landscape and identifies some value before the market moves. Besides this article, I will provide my final bracket prediction the morning of Selection Sunday. There's a lot to get into, so let's jump right into takeaways before the final games leading into postseason play.

Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>

2026 NCAA Men’s Tournament Bracketology Predictions

The State of Auto-Bids

As of now, two different teams have punched their ticket into the tournament: Long Island (NEC) and Tennessee State (OVC). Besides that we have the MVC, Big South, Summit, and ASUN final tonight so grab some popcorn and put your feet up.

Long Island and Tennessee State will likely be 16 seeds so not much to say about them. Among those playing for an auto-bid tonight, Northern Iowa and High Point make for the most interesting giant killer potentials. High Point has a near top-50 offense with a feisty defense that forces turnovers at a top-10 clip in the league. They’d enter March Madness on a 14-game winning streak and did beat UIC in the non-con. Still, people also had high hopes (pun intended) last year and they got crushed by Purdue so take this with a grain of salt.

If Northern Iowa wins, they’d have won four straight games in an Arch Madness tournament that delivered. UNI has a top-25 defense and slows the pace against their opponents. They do struggle to generate shots with a bottom 20 offensive board and free throw rate, however, so they would need a great shooting night to pull an upset.

The State of At-Larges

Many teams have locked up their bid into the tournament outside of the auto-bids. Let's go conference by conference to see where the teams currently sit.

ACC

Locks: Duke, Virginia, North Carolina, Louisville, Miami, Clemson
Should Be In: North Carolina State
Bubble: SMU, California, Virginia Tech

Big Ten

Locks: Michigan, Illinois, Michigan State, Purdue, Nebraska, Wisconsin, UCLA, Iowa
Bubble: Ohio State, Indiana

Big East

Locks: UConn, St. John’s, Villanova
Bubble: Seton Hall

Big 12

Locks: Arizona, Houston, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Kansas, BYU
Should Be In: TCU
Bubble: UCF, Cincinnati

Mountain West

Locks: Utah State
Bubble: New Mexico, San Diego State

SEC

Locks: Florida, Alabama, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia
Should Be In: Missouri, Texas A&M, Texas
Bubble: None

All Other Conferences

Locks: Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, Miami (Ohio)
Bubble: VCU, Santa Clara

The bubble has tightened the closer we get to Selection Sunday. It seems like a lot depends on how the Big Ten tournament shakes out with Indiana and Ohio State both squarely on the bubble.

Also no, I did not forget Auburn. They are 16-15 after losing to Alabama last night and I don’t care about strength of schedule, a 16-15 regular season record is not good enough to get in as an at-large.

Also yes, Miami (OH) is a lock after finishing the regular season undefeated. Right now, bracket matrix has them as an 11, I have them as a 10, but there’s definitely a reality where they end up being a nine seed and we’ve been underrating them all year. Among the bubbles, VCU and Santa Clara are dangerous and if you consider TCU a bubble, they’re obviously dangerous too.

The Storylines

With the bracket being revealed in a week, here’s what to focus on the next week:

We’re Number One: Coming down the stretch, I thought we were going to have a dance of death for the final one seed. Duke, Michigan, and Arizona have all but locked up the one seed. UConn was there too but now with their loss to Marquette, there’s a lot more to question. I know the committee needs to judge the entire season, but Florida is on an 11-game winning streak and has been dominating, despite their slow start. If you asked me to take my four projected one seeds with UConn getting relegated against the rest of the field for the tournament, I’d take my group of four. I’d be surprised if the champion didn’t come from the grouping of Duke, Michigan, Arizona, and Florida.

Bubble Talk: During this time of year, the bubble is like the weather on the news, always going to be a talking point. The bubble this year is…fine. TCU is the most dangerous potential double-digit seed by far. Indiana might’ve fallen out after dropping to Ohio State but I don’t see many bubble teams capable of making it to the second weekend. Santa Clara has an argument, ranking 30th on Bart Torvik but actually move up to 24th against top 100 opponents. That’s better than teams like North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Georgia. Don’t sleep on the Broncos.

Everbody Gets an Injury!: I don’t feel like there’s been a tournament in recent history that has so many high profile players out for their team: J.T. Toppin, Caleb Wilson, and Richie Saunders are all tournament-changing players that really limit their respective teams’ ceilings. It will be interesting to see how the committee changes seeding for Texas Tech, UNC, and BYU given those injuries. Not to mention if Darryn Peterson is all-in, if Nolan Winter is fully healthy with Wisconsin, or the other handful of banged up players.

The Bracket & Seeding

I don't know about y'all, but I love the hypotheticals brackets provide us. With a week of play left, there is still time for seeding to change, but a lot more teams lock up their bids each day.

Some big current winners of the week include Florida, TCU, Ohio State, and USF. The SEC is still the best conference, but the Big 12 has become quite interesting with seeding. Regardless, here's what I imagine the bracket to look like if March Madness started today.

The Seeding

No. 1 Seeds

Duke
Michigan
Arizona
Florida

No. 2 Seeds

UConn
Houston
Illinois
Michigan State

No. 3 Seeds

Iowa State
Nebraska
Alabama
Gonzaga

No. 4 Seeds

Texas Tech
Purdue
Virginia
Kansas

No. 5 Seeds

Arkansas
Vanderbilt
Wisconsin
Tennessee

No. 6 Seeds

North Carolina
St. John’s
Louisville
Kentucky

No. 7 Seeds

St. Mary’s (CA)
Georgia
Miami (FL)
Villanova

No. 8 Seeds

BYU
Clemson
Utah State
UCLA

No. 9 Seeds

Saint Louis
Iowa
North Carolina State
TCU

No. 10 Seeds

UCF
Missouri
Miami (OH)
Texas A&M

No. 11 Seeds

Texas
Ohio State
SMU*
Santa Clara*
VCU*
New Mexico*

No. 12 Seeds

South Florida
Yale
Stephen F. Austin
High Point

No. 13 Seeds

Liberty
Northern Iowa
UNC-Wilmington
Utah Valley

No. 14 Seeds

Hawaii
North Dakota State
E. Tennessee State
Troy

No. 15 Seeds

Navy
Central Arkansas
Portland State
Wright State

No. 16 Seeds

Merrimack
Tennessee State
Long Island*
Howard*
UMBC*
Bethune-Cookman*

*Play-in games

First Four Out

Indiana
Virginia Tech
California
Cincinnati

Next Four Out

Seton Hall
Auburn
San Diego Stae
Tulsa

The Bracket

The biggest problem I face right now is solving how much the injuries impact seeding. As mentioned before, it will obviously impact the performance of the team but how much it will impact the seeding is left for question. I really feel like the bubble isn’t as big as people think, Indiana needs to make a deeper run in Big Ten to get back in but crazier things have happened.

Otherwise, you may see not much has changed in my bracket. This time of year, a lot of bracketologists get trigger-happy, overweighing these March games. However, the committee looks at the entire season and sometimes it feels like brackets were locked up days in advance.

East Region

1 Duke vs. 16 Merrimack
8 BYU vs. 9 Iowa
5 Arkansas vs. 12 South Florida
4 Texas Tech vs. 13 Liberty
6 North Carolina vs. 11 Texas
3 Nebraska vs. 14 Hawaii
7 St. Mary’s vs. 10 Missouri
2 Michigan State vs. 15 Wright State

West Region

1 Michigan vs. 16 Tennessee State
8 Clemson vs. 9 Saint Louis
5 Vanderbilt vs. 12 Yale
4 Purdue vs. 13 Northern Iowa
6 St. John’s vs. 11 Ohio State
3 Gonzaga vs. 14 North Dakota State
7 Georgia vs. 10 UCF
2 Illinois vs. 15 Central Arkansas

South Region

1 Arizona vs. 16 Long Island/Howard
8 Utah State vs. 9 NC State
5 Wisconsin vs. 12 Stephen F. Austin
4 Virginia vs. 13 UNC-Wilmington
6 Louisville vs. 11 VCU/Santa Clara
3 Alabama vs. 14 E. Tennessee State
7 Villanova vs. 10 Miami (OH)
2 Illinois vs. 15 Portland State

Midwest Region

1 Florida vs. 16. UMBC/Bethune-Cookman
8 UCLA vs. 9. TCU
5 Tennessee vs. 12. High Point
4 Kansas vs. 13. Utah Valley
6 Kentucky vs. 11. SMU/New Mexico
3 Iowa State vs. 14. Troy
7 Miami (FL) 10. Texas A&M
2 UConn vs. 15. Wright State

Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.

Navigate