2026 NCAA Tournament West Region Betting Primer (March Madness)

by Ryan Rodeman |
Mar 16, 2026

The 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament is finally here. Sixty-eight teams enter the field with dreams of stamping their names on an unforgettable season. Only four teams will descend upon Indianapolis for the chance to write their names next to the champions that came before.

The West Region will run through San Jose. Who has a shot to be this year's Cinderella team? Who is on upset alert in the first round? What are the games to watch for on Thursday and Friday? Who will cut down the nets and stamp their ticket to the Final Four? Let's dive deeper into the West Region.

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2026 NCAA Tournament South Region Betting Primer

West Region Cinderella

It would take five wins to get there, but don't write off Quadir Copeland and NC State. Following his coach, Will Wade, from McNeese State, Copeland has led the Wolfpack to the NCAA tournament with an insane assist rate and improved his three-point shooting rate to 39.7%, just behind three teammates who are over 40% on the season.

NC State’s defense is susceptible to giving up threes, but variance is big in a tournament like this, and Purdue is the only other team in the region in the top 50 in the nation in three-point rate. With an experienced coach who has won in March and flamethrowers from deep, NC State is poised to bust a lot of people's brackets

Upset Alert

Stop me if you've heard this one before. John Calipari is taking a talented but flawed team into March against a strong mid-major. Fresh off an SEC Tournament championship, Calipari and Arkansas are on upset alert. Not many people are familiar with this Hawai’i team, but they're one of the best three-point defenses in the country.

Hawai’i is the perfect kryptonite to slow down a hot shooting Razorbacks team that shoots 38.9% from deep. If Arkansas looks to take it inside, Hawai’i has five players in the rotation listed at 6-foot-8 or taller, including their 7-foot-0 star Isaac Johnson, who sports a 50.3% field-goal rate, 31.5% three-point rate and 88.5% free-throw rate. He has Hawai’i poised to hand Calipari another stunning first-round exit.

First Round Game to Watch

If you like high-scoring college basketball, High Point versus Wisconsin is the matchup for you. High Point ran through the Big South and enters the tournament with the nation's longest win streak at 14 games. They're a senior-laden lineup that lacks size, but makes up for it in taking care of the ball. These two teams are both ranked in the top five in the nation in turnover rate. On top of that, they both like to play fast.

This isn't Bo Ryan's Wisconsin. Nick Boyd and John Blackwell lead the Badgers, and both are capable of 30+ points on any given night. They're incredibly reliant on the three-point shot and may have to switch up their offensive approach against an undersized High Point team. Either way, expect a lot of scoring and runs from each team. The spread on this game is in the double digits, but don't be surprised if the experience and poise of High Point help them make this a thrilling game.

West Region Winner

Arizona has staked its case as the best team in the country. Outside of one week in February, this team looked destined for an undefeated regular season. They put up non-conference wins over Florida, UCLA, UConn and Alabama before going 16-2 to win a strong Big 12 with 10 double-digit wins. They followed this up with a Big 12 Tournament title in Kansas City.

KenPom ranks both their offensive rating and defensive rating amongst the top five in the nation, and they have the second-best two-point rate defense in the nation. This team is long, athletic, experienced and not reliant on the deep ball - even though they can shoot it well. The Wildcats are getting used to cutting down nets and expect this exercise in San Jose to get them ready for the whole thing in Indianapolis on April 6th.

More NCAA Tournament Predictions & Previews

#1 Duke vs. #16 Siena
#8 Ohio State vs. #9 TCU
#5 St. John’s vs. #12 Northern Iowa
#4 Kansas vs. #13 Cal Baptist
#6 Louisville vs. #11 South Florida
#3 Michigan State vs. #14 North Dakota State
#7 UCLA vs. #10 UCF
#2 UConn vs. #15 Furman

#1 Arizona vs. #16 LIU
#8 Villanova vs. #9 Utah State
#5 Wisconsin vs. #12 High Point
#4 Arkansas vs. #13 Hawai’i
#11 Texas vs. North Carolina State
#3 Gonzaga vs. #14 Kennesaw State
#7 Miami (FL) vs. #10 Missouri
#2 Purdue vs. #15 Queens

#16 UMBC vs. Howard
#8 Georgia vs. #9 Saint Louis
#5 Texas Tech vs. #12 Akron
#4 Alabama vs. #13 Hofstra
#11 Miami OH vs. SMU
#3 Virginia vs. #14 Wright State
#7 Kentucky vs. #10 Santa Clara
#2 Iowa State vs. #15 Tennessee State

#16 Prairie View A&M vs. Lehigh
#8 Clemson vs. #9 Iowa
#5 Vanderbilt vs. #12 McNeese
#4 Nebraska vs. #13 Troy
#6 North Carolina vs. #11 VCU
#3 Illinois vs. #14 Penn
#7 Saint Mary’s vs. #10 Texas A&M
#2 Houston vs. #15 Idaho

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