2026 Open Championship Picks & Predictions: First Round Leader
Royal Birkdale Golf Club hosts the 154th edition of the Open Championship this week. Located along the western shoreline in Southport, England, this links course is a par 70 that runs just over 7,200 yards, with its iconic dunes and narrow fairways prioritizing tee-to-green efficiency. It’s the first time playing host since Jordan Spieth’s victory in 2017.
Previous winners of this major include Collin Morikawa, Cam Smith, Brian Harman, Xander Schauffele, and Scottie Scheffler last season. Scheffler just missed the cut at the Scottish Open last week, yet he’s still the outright betting favorite at Royal Birkdale at +700 odds.
In this betting article, I’m focusing on golfers capable of high-end production in Round 1. We’re going to place a few wagers in the First Round Leader prop betting market, which starts with Scheffler and Rory McIlroy at 20-1 odds.
I’ve got three golfers worth betting on in the First Round Leader prop market ahead of Thursday’s opening round at the 2026 Open Championship. Here are my top 2026 Open Championship picks for first round leaders. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more free picks and PGA Tour analysis.
2026 Open Championship Picks & Predictions: First Round Leader
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Tommy Fleetwood (+3000)
One of the crowd favorites this week will undoubtedly be Tommy Fleetwood. The Englishman returns to Royal Birkdale following a T27 in 2017, along with six top 10 finishes in 2026.
Fleetwood ranks 26th for Round 1 scoring average this season (69.47) and is well-versed in links golf. The veteran fired a 66 as his lowest score (Round 3) at Royal Birkdale back in 2017.
Fleetwood has also carded a 67 in Round 1 across four of his last five starts, including at The Renaissance Club in Scotland last week. He’s the third betting favorite in the FRL market, so let’s start with Fleetwood to win Round 1 at 30-1.
Matt Fitzpatrick (+3300)
We’re rolling with another Englishman in the FRL market and betting on Matt Fitzpatrick at 33-1. He’s a major champion (2022 U.S. Open) and has amassed three wins in 2026. Simply put, Fitzpatrick is riding a big-time heater into Royal Birkdale this week.
He leads the PGA Tour in SG: Approach and sits inside the top-10 for driving accuracy and greens in regulation hit at 71.7 percent. Fitzpatrick is ranked fourth in Round 1 scoring average this year (69.00), alternating between 67-64 in four consecutive starts.
He’s a top-five favorite in this market, and deservedly so, meaning we can’t ignore Fitzpatrick’s resumé and current form entering Thursday’s opening round.
Roll out Fitzpatrick as the next FRL ticket at +3300 odds.
Wyndham Clark (+4500)
I’ve been backing Wyndham Clark in a variety of betting articles and PGA Tour markets lately, and it won’t stop here. He’s stacked two wins, including his second U.S. Open victory, thanks to a red-hot putter and strong approach play.
In 2026, Clark ranks 17th in SG: Approach and 21st in SG: Putting. He leads the PGA Tour in putting average, while carding 67 or lower in four of his past six events. It’s why Clark sits 13th in Round 1 scoring average (69.24) in 2026.
The two-time major champion is coming off a T4 finish, a career-best, at Royal Portrush during the 2025 Open Championship. At 45-1, let’s finish our FRL card with one final bet on Clark.