2026 Open Championship Picks & Predictions: Make/Miss Cut
The 154th edition of the Open Championship tees off from Royal Birkdale Golf Club in Southport, England, on Thursday morning. 156 golfers will compete at this re-designed par 70 links course, running just over 7,200 yards along the Merseyside coastline in northwest England.
High dunes, coastal winds, and thin fairways flanked by difficult fescue and pot bunkers put a premium on tee-to-green precision. Greens are guarded and elevated, while not overly large, a bit of a deviation from The Renaissance Club during last week’s Scottish Open.
Scottie Scheffler just missed the cut for the first time in 78 events at the Scottish Open. That shocking result could lead to more star golfers struggling at Royal Birkdale this week. This week, only the top 70 players and ties advance into the weekend amongst a 156-golfer field.
In my latest betting article, I’ve found four prospects in the Make/Miss Cut prop markets to bet ahead of Round 1 on Thursday morning. Here are my favorite 2026 Open Championship picks to make or miss the cut. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more free picks and PGA Tour analysis as we push toward the FedExCup Playoffs.
2026 Open Championship Picks & Predictions: Favorite Bets to Make/Miss Cut
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
To Make The Cut – Kurt Kitayama (-196)
There’s not a ton of value in the To Make The Cut market at the Open Championship. Kurt Kitayama sticks out for a few reasons at -196 odds.
Kitayama has only missed two cuts in 17 events this season. He’s ranked 10th in SG: Approach and 32nd in SG: Off-the-Tee, sixth in total driving, and ninth for greens in regulation hit (70.3%) in 2026.
After missing the cut at his first two Open Championship appearances, Kitayama has improved to T72-T60-T41 in his last three appearances. Let’s lay the juice and bet on Kitayama to make the cut at Royal Birkdale at -196 odds.
To Make The Cut – Keegan Bradley (-190)
Keegan Bradley is sitting in the same range as Kurt Kitayama to Make the Cut at -190 odds. He’s not having a highlight-reel campaign in 2026, however, Bradley has posted T35 finishes or better in five consecutive tournaments played after missing the cut at the PGA Championship.
This season, Bradley is 23rd in total driving, 52nd in proximity and top-40 for 200+ yard approach shots. He finally snapped an Open Championship missed cut slump, breaking out of a five-year skid with a T30 at Royal Portrush in 2025.
The majority of Bradley’s missed cuts came between January and March. He should be able to play well enough to secure tee times on Saturday and Sunday, so let’s bet on Keegan Bradley to make the cut at -190 odds.
To Miss The Cut – Kristoffer Reitan (+124)
Norway’s Kristoffer Reitan burst onto the scene with an outright win at the Truist Championship in May. Reitan followed up his first PGA Tour victory with a T6 finish at the Memorial Tournament, a Signature Event, just two events later.
Lately, it’s been a grind for Reitan on the golf course. He’s missed two cuts in his last three outings, including at the Scottish Open last week, firing +3 and failing to finish at even par in either round.
Ranks 108th in SG: Approach, 88th in SG: Putting, 86th in driving accuracy, 89th in proximity, and 124th in scrambling. Reitan can nuke the golf ball off-the-tee, but that won’t necessarily hide his other flaws during his Royal Birkdale debut.
Fade Kristoffer Reitan and bet on him to Miss The Cut at +124 odds.
To Miss The Cut – Justin Thomas (+188)
I saved my biggest surprise for last with Justin Thomas missing the cut at +188 odds. While it’s been a fairly strong year for Thomas, especially since returning from an off-season back surgery, he only managed a T50 at The Renaissance Club on Sunday.
Since a brutal +14 during his season debut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Thomas has not missed a cut. Therefore, these odds feel a bit short for a golfer who has managed to make 12 consecutive cuts.
In 2026, Thomas ranks 104th in SG: Approach, 142nd in proximity, 138th for greens in regulation, and 84th in scrambling. Off-the-Tee is where he’s been best, yet Thomas is due for a rude awakening at a tough track like Royal Birkdale.
He’s missed cuts at three of nine appearances at the Open Championship, most recently at Royal Liverpool in 2023. He did miss the cut at Royal Birkdale back in 2017.
Lock in J.T. to miss the cut at the Open Championship due to his deficiency in approach play and short game inadequacies.