2026 Open Championship Picks & Predictions: PGA Sleepers
The 154th edition of the Open Championship will tee off from Royal Birkdale in Southport, England, early Thursday morning. The final major of the PGA Tour calendar brings 156 golfers together in a stacked field, led by defending champion Scottie Scheffler, who is once again the betting favorite at +700 odds.
Tom Kim carded his first win in three years at the Genesis Scottish Open on Sunday, cashing outright winner bets as long as 92-1. Now, we’ll see if another longshot can climb the leaderboard to hoist the Claret Jug as a second consecutive bona fide sleeper.
Royal Birkdale’s emphasis on tee-to-green accuracy gives an edge to accurate iron players in this field. Of course, a hot putter is always an alternative way to contend at links golf. Jordan Spieth won the last Open Championship at Royal Birkdale in 2017. He’s 80-1 in the current outright betting market.
Other notable sleepers at the 2026 Open Championship include Bryson DeChambeau (+6500), Brooks Koepka (+7000), J.J. Spaun (+7000), Keegan Bradley (+10000), Akshay Bhatia (+10000), Cameron Smith (+12500) and Max Homa at 175-1. Five of these golfers have at least one major win, with Cameron Smith winning the 2022 Open Championship at St. Andrews.
I’ve found three of my top sleepers to sprinkle on in the 2026 Open Championship outright winner betting market before Round 1 tees off in the wee hours of Thursday morning. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more free picks and analysis down the closing stretch of the 2026 PGA Tour season.
2026 Open Championship Picks & Predictions: PGA Sleepers
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Keegan Bradley (+10000)
Keegan Bradley is a major champion, although it came stateside at the 2011 PGA Championship. He’s been up-and-down in 2026, although he’s secured a pair of top 20 finishes in his last four events played.
Bradley will make his debut at Royal Birkdale, despite playing in his 13th Open Championship. He’s ranked 23rd in total driving, 52nd in proximity, 39th for 200+ yard approach shots,
At 100-1, Bradley’s accuracy off-the-tee and ability to get close to the hole make him a worthy longshot target in the outright winner betting market ahead of the 2026 Open Championship on Thursday.
Akshay Bhatia (+10000)
This is Akshay Bhatia’s third Open Championship appearance. He built off a missed cut at Royal Troon in 2024 with a T30 at Royal Portrush last season.
Bhatia has three PGA Tour wins, including as a longshot at the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational that we hit at 70-1 earlier this year. The young, talented lefty ranks second in SG: Putting on the PGA Tour, 44th in SG: Approach, fifth in sand save rate, and top-five for putts per round, one-putt rate, and par 4 scoring.
Bhatia will look to make a splash with his first major title during his Royal Birkdale debut this week. Recent finishes include T17 at the U.S. Open at Shinnecock and a T5 at the Travelers Championship.
Bet on Bhatia to come through as a sleeper again at 100-1 at the 2026 Open Championship.
Cam Smith (+12500)
Cam Smith should have plenty of confidence entering Royal Birkdale. He won the 2022 Open Championship at St. Andrews, while carding a T7 finish at the 2026 PGA Championship in May.
The Aussie is gaining 2.1 strokes with his putter in 2026 and 2.9 strokes with his short game around the green. Simply put, we’re investing in Smith’s elite touch to finesse his way up the leaderboard at Royal Birkdale, where he’ll aim to avenge a missed cut during his Open Championship debut in 2017.
Tee-to-green has been suspect this year, but Smith can counter with his chipping and putting on this restored links course. At 125-1, Smith is a major sleeper at the 2026 Open Championship.