2026 Open Championship Picks & Predictions: Top 5 & Top 10 Bets
156 golfers will descend upon Royal Birkdale Golf Club in Southport, England, for the 2026 Open Championship. Scottie Scheffler returns to defend his title following a rare missed cut at the Scottish Open last week, with oddsmakers remaining bullish on the World No. 1 golfer at +700 odds in the outright winner betting market.
Royal Birkdale will play as a par 70 at 7,223 yards. Its most captivating feature is the tall dunes, stretching along the coastline of northwest England. This creates elevated greens and sunken, narrow fairways with fescue looming for errant tee shots and approach shots. Bunkers abound, while wind remains a primary defense at this historic links course, expected to play dry and fast this week. It’s also undergone significant restoration since it last hosted in 2017.
I’m heading to the Top 5 and Top 10 Finish (Incl. Ties) prop bet markets for my latest 2026 Open Championship picks. Here are 2026 Open Championship picks for top 5 and top 10 finishers to target before Thursday’s early morning (1:35 a.m. ET) tee times get underway from Royal Birkdale.
Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more free picks and PGA Tour analysis for the remainder of the 2026 PGA Tour season.
2026 Open Championship Picks & Predictions: Favorite Top 5 and Top 10 Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Top 5 – Rory McIlroy (+200)
Few names are more synonymous with links golf than Rory McIlroy. Northern Ireland’s star golfer is coming off a strong T7 effort at the Scottish Open on Sunday, firing a 64 in the final round to surge up the leaderboard.
McIlroy has amassed only one top 5 finish in his last four Open Championship appearances. However, he’s logged top 10 finishes in two of those other three outings, including a T7 at Royal Portrush last season.
Ranks second in total strokes gained and leads the PGA Tour in SG: Off-the-Tee. Improved approach play (30th SG: Approach) and putting (36th SG: Putting) are the main reasons for McIlroy sitting 11th or better in scoring average, par 4 scoring, and birdie average this season.
Since his win at The Masters in April, McIlroy has failed to notch another top 5 finish. That drought ends at Royal Birkdale this weekend, so bet on McIlroy to post a Top 5 at 2-1 odds.
Top 5 – Matt Fitzpatrick (+280)
Matt Fitzpatrick is playing the best golf of his career heading into Royal Birkdale. The Englishman has three top 5 finishes across his last four starts on the PGA Tour, including a T3 at The Renaissance Club on Sunday.
Fitzpatrick leads all PGA Tour golfers in SG: Approach and is also ninth in total driving and third for hitting greens in regulation at nearly 72 percent. Top-30 marks in scrambling and proximity further boost Fitzpatrick’s appeal in the Top 5 Finish prop market at +280 odds.
Still not convinced? He’s second in scoring average, third on par 4 scoring, and 11th in birdie average in 2026. Lock in Fitzpatrick for a third straight finish inside the top five in a return to his native country.
Top 10 – Robert MacIntyre (+250)
Flying under the radar in 2026, Robert MacIntyre showed glimpses of his elite touch playing on links golf courses during the Scottish Open. The Scot carded a T3 finish, marking a second straight top 10 result.
MacIntyre has posted three top 10 finishes at the Open Championship in six attempts, including a T7 at Royal Portrush a year ago. Ranks 14th in total strokes gained, 20th in SG: Off-the-Tee and ninth in SG: Putting this season.
As a result, he’s sitting top-10 for par 4 scoring and birdie average, although his approach play has been lackluster at best. Let’s invest in MacIntyre’s off-the-tee and putting prowess to counter his irons, while playing at a major where he’s frequently turned in top 10 finishes.
Bet on Robert MacIntyre in the Top 10 Finish market at a solid +250 odds.
Top 10 – Tom Kim (+400)
How can we not back Tom Kim right now? After winning by two strokes as a 90-1 longshot at the Scottish Open, Kim remains a bit undervalued in the Top 10 Finish prop market at +400 odds, especially for a golfer looking to post his third top five finish in a four-event stretch.
The 24-year-old snapped a three-year win drought on Sunday. He fired a bogey-free 64 in Round 4 in clutch fashion. Kim has had four outings at the Open Championship, missing the cut twice and a T47, while logging a runner-up finish at Royal Liverpool in 2023.
Notable ranks include first in scrambling, fifth in SG: Approach, 12th in proximity, as well as top-30 for driving accuracy and green in regulation rate (69%) in 2026. This translates extremely well to links golf.
Let’s bet on Kim to record his fourth Top 10 finish of the year, all coming in his last seven events played, at a robust 4-1 price ahead of the Open Championship.