2026 U.S. Open Picks & Predictions: Favorite Round 3 Props
The 2026 U.S. Open moves into the weekend with the top 60 golfers and ties making the cut line following Round 2 on Friday. Wyndham Clark did enough to maintain his multi-stroke lead over the field, carding the lowest 36-hole score at Shinnecock Hills, sitting at -7-under-par entering Saturday.
Notable missed cuts at this major include Bryson DeChambeau, Patrick Reed, Jon Rahm, Si Woo Kim, Brooks Koepka, and 2025 U.S. Open champion, J.J. Spaun. Pre-tournament favorite Scottie Scheffler, carded a -2-under-par outing in Round 2 to climb to even par (T11) on the leaderboard.
Other big names chasing Clark, who is vying for his second U.S. Open title, include Matt Fitzpatrick, Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, and Rory McIlroy. All five of these golfers are available to bet between +600 and +2100 odds in the outright winner market.
My 2026 U.S. Open Picks & Predictions: Favorite Round 2 Props wound up settling 1-2. However, our lone win did come at plus odds in the 3-ball matchup market, cashing Keegan Bradley over Rickie Fowler and Daniel Berger at +165 odds. My other two 3-ball props on Matt Fitzpatrick and Patrick Reed lost by one stroke.
Let’s look ahead to Round 3 and lock in a few more props ahead of Saturday’s tee times at Shinnecock. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more free picks and PGA Tour analysis throughout the remainder of the PGA Tour season.
2026 U.S. Open Picks & Predictions: Favorite Round 3 Props
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Round Score – Jordan Spieth
The forecast calls for 20 mph winds throughout most of the afternoon in Round 3. Jordan Spieth is unlikely to prevail in these conditions, especially with poor putting and approach play.
In Round 1, when wind was a primary hazard, Spieth shot a 73. He came down to a 70 in Round 2 with a bit less wind to fight. However, he became even worse on approach, losing -0.97 strokes (109th) and sat 131st in SG: Short Game (-1.32) despite an improved putter.
Iron struggles and short game inefficiency do not bode well for Spieth in Round 3. Let’s lay the juice and bet over 72.5 to fade the 2015 U.S. Open champion.
Pick: Over 72.5 (-130)
Round Score – Brian Harman
I was intrigued by Brian Harman heading into this major due to the similarities Shinnecock poses to links golf. Harman’s major victory at the Open Championship at Royal Liverpool in 2023 was part of my bullishness, while also noting he’s won other stateside events in windy conditions.
Through two rounds, Harman has shot 69-71. Yet, oddsmakers have his Round 3 score set to 72.5 with juice on over 72.5 at -148 odds. This just feels like a trap.
Harman ranks second in fairways hit this week (25/28), T8 for greens in regulation (75%) and 23rd in SG: Putting. The last metric is the most surprising to me, however, he’s been steadily showcasing himself as a tee-to-green tactician at Shinnecock.
Jump on the plus odds and bet on Brian Harman to go under 72.5 (+2 or lower) in Round 3.
Pick: Under 72.5 (+110)
Round Score – Matt Fitzpatrick
Matt Fitzpatrick has been just as good as expected at Shinnecock through the first two rounds. The 2022 U.S. Open winner has three outrights under his belt in 2026. He’s yet to go over par in either round and jockeyed into a four-way runner-up tie at -3 on the current leaderboard.
At 71.5, oddsmakers actually have -118 odds on the over, indicating there’s some hesitation that we’ll see another strong outing on the course from Fitzpatrick on Saturday. I’m fully locked in on the Englishman to continue playing his brand of golf in the punishing winds forecasted in Round 3.
Fitzpatrick led the field in SG: Short Game on Friday during Round 2. He’s also sixth in SG: Approach for the week, T29 for greens in regulation (69%), and 21st in SG: Putting.
While off-the-tee has been the weak point for Fitzpatrick, I’m willing to bet on him shooting +1 or better to remain in position near the top of the leaderboard on Saturday. Let’s place one final wager on Matt Fitzpatrick to go under 71.5 at -114 odds.
Pick: Under 71.5 (-114)