2026 U.S. Open Picks & Predictions: First Round Leader
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club is set to host the 2026 U.S. Open this week for the first time since Brooks Koepka’s win in 2018. It’s the third major of the season, so all of golf’s biggest names are in this field, set to compete at this difficult par-70 course.
In this betting preview, we’re aiming for a relatively quick payout on Thursday in the First Round Leader market. These props often don’t wind up ceding an outright winner, as it’s difficult to sustain a wire-to-wire win or enough production to hold off a field, particularly at a course like Shinnecock. It’s evidenced by Scottie Scheffler sitting at +1800 odds in this First Round Leader market, while only +550 in the outright winner betting market.
With this in mind, I’ve found three golfers worth betting on in the First Round Leader prop market ahead of Thursday. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more free picks and PGA Tour analysis.
2026 U.S. Open Picks & Predictions: First Round Leader
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Si Woo Kim (+4000)
One of the most consistent golfers in terms of low scores in Round 1 this season has been Si Woo Kim. The South Korean golfer is 19th in Round 1 scoring average (69.38) and ranks high in a ton of key metrics, including sixth in SG: Approach and 15th in SG: Off-the-Tee.
Kim is also third in driving accuracy, 20th at finding greens in regulation, and 28th in proximity. Most importantly, an improved putter leading to 12th in putting average.
At 40-1, let’s stake a quarter unit (0.25) to grab 10 units of profit on Kim in the First Round Leader betting market, backing one of the PGA Tour’s best golfers on approach at a course like Shinnecock.
Ben Griffin (+8000)
Another golfer who tends to shoot low numbers in Round 1 is Ben Griffin. He’s coming off a terrible +7 at the Memorial Tournament in his last outing, which led to a missed cut.
Now that Griffin has had a couple of weeks to rest and practice for Shinnecock, expect a better effort from the multi-time PGA Tour winner. He’s going to lean into his putting to succeed, ranked 24th in SG: Putting this season, while sitting 30th in scrambling and leading all golfers in sand save percentage.
Since Shinnecock is filled with scrambling opportunities due to undulation and wind, along with over 150 bunkers, Griffin is worth another 0.25-unit flier at 80-1 odds for the First Round Leader.
Sahith Theegala (+8000)
After shooting a 64 in the opening round at the RBC Canadian Open last Thursday to nab a share of the first-round lead, we saw Sahith Theegala regress in his final three rounds. That’s why it’s important to look to golfers who have a tendency to start hot early at a tournament when placing FRL wagers.
Theegala ranks 42nd in Round 1 scoring average (69.7) this year. Finishing even par may be good enough on a course like Shinnecock, which saw Koepka claim victory at +1 on his final scorecard eight years ago.
Theegala has shot an opening round score of 67 or lower in six events this season. He’s ranked 34th in sand save rate and 14th in putts per round.
He may not rank highly in terms of tee-to-green accuracy, but Theegala is a top-50 golfer for scrambling and has enough power to cover distance with his driver and irons.
Bet one final 0.25-unit wager on Theegala as our final prospect in the First Round Leader market at +8000 odds on FanDuel.