2026 US Open Men’s Finals Picks & Predictions: Sunday (9/13)
We head into the final matchup of the 2026 US Open with Elena Rybakina emerging victorious from the women’s draw with the former and new-current WTA World Rankings #1’s having battled as the final two women standing at this year’s tournament. There is new blood guaranteed on the men’s side, however, as neither of the remaining men possesses any US Open hardware.
Let’s dive into Sunday’s matchup, set for 2pm at storied Arthur Ashe Stadium, the world’s largest tennis stadium in Queens, New York.
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Sunday's Best US Open Men’s Semifinals Bets
US Open Picks 2-0 | Last 5-3 | (Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Alexander Zverev (GER) vs. Ben Shelton (USA)
Alexander Zverev is playing in his third straight Grand Slam final, but the French Open champ has never won a Grand Slam title on the hard court. This is his first US Open Final since 2020, but it will be his first in front of a live crowd since the 2020 US Open was not open to spectators amid the COVID-19 Pandemic. The German is 0-1 in US Open finals and 1-4 in Grand Slam finals, including 0-2 on hard courts. He is 1-1 in his last two Grand Slam finals but he has not played in a Grand Slam final on hard courts since the 2025 Australian Open, going on two years ago.
This means Zverev hasn’t won a Grand Slam semifinal matchup on a hard surface that was played to completion since beating Pablo Carreño Busta in five sets back in 2020, the better part of a decade ago. This also means he has never won a Grand Slam semis matchup that was played to completion in front of a live crowd since the 2020 US Open, which was not open to spectators in the midst of the COVID-19 Pandemic.
Zverev has won the first set in 10 straight Grand Slam matches, including 6-2 first-set wins in each of his last three ATP finals in the United States (+1100). Zverev won the first set 6-2 the last time he faced Ben Shelton on an outdoor hard court in the Cincinnati Open in 2025. He has also won the first set 6-2 in two of their five all-time meetings, including two of the last four. Zverev has also won 16 straight ATP matches against left-handed opponents.
Speaking of head-to-head matchups, Zverev has owned Ben Shelton to the tune of 5-0. He is perfect against him while having played him on every surface, hard (indoor & outdoor), clay, and grass. Shelton has literally not even won a set since the very first set of the very first match these two played back in 2024. Although, he has taken four sets to a tiebreak, so there’s that.
Zverev has also covered the games spread in four straight ATP matches against Shelton. The American has not won a set against Zverev in over two years, it’s hard to imagine him covering a slight 1.5-game spread, especially when it’s the same spread as two of their last three meetings. Zverev has also won each of his four matches at this US Open in straight sets, having not dropped a set since the second set of the second round and amassing 15-straight set victories. This means there is extreme value in the +330 return for Zverev to win in straights set today, especially when you so consider Zverev has taken 10 consecutive sets from Shelton, including six straight on hard courts.
Ben Shelton is playing in his first-ever Grand Slam final after beating Frances Tiafoe in his second US Open semifinal in four years. It’s difficult to back the 23-year-old and doing so would be more about Zverev’s Grand Slam finals history and completely overlooking these two men’s personal on-court history. Although, Shelton is red hot this season, having taken home four titles in 2026.
Zverev is the favorite for a reason, with a spotless 5-0 head-to-head record, that currently includes 10 consecutive set victories.
Picks: Alexander Zverev Moneyline (-152), Alexander Zverev -1.5 (-125) & Alexander Zverev 3-0 (+330)
Luke Monaldo is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @MoKnowsSports, Discord @alydar1227 AKA The GIFTing Crooner, and on TikTok @The GreatLoudini. For more from Luke, check out his archive.