2026 US Open Women’s Finals Picks & Predictions: Saturday (9/12)

Aryna Sabalenka holds a 10-7 head-to-head against Elena Rybakina in her career, including a 2-1 record in Grand Slam matches. Rybakina did beat her at this year's Australian Open, their last time playing in a Grand Slam.

This is the fourth time these two have played in 2026, with Sabalenka holding the 2-1 advantage. Saby has taken the last two meetings, with Rybakina taking the two before that, and they alternated for six matches after that. The two stand deadlocked at 5-5 in their last 10. Sahy won the first four head-to-head matchups, so since Rybakina first beat Sabalenka in the Finals of the 2023 Indian Wells Open, Rybakina holds the slight 7-6 advantage. Rybakina also holds the 4-1 advantage in their last five WTA Finals matches, including 1-0 in Grand Slam Finals. The two are split 7-7 all-time on hard court encounters, with Rybakina taking six of the last 10 such matches.

During Sabalenka's recently ended 99-week stint atop the World Rankings, nobody had more head-to-head victories against her than Elena Rybakina who ended the 99-week run to take the #1 ranking for herself by making the semifinals. Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff both beat her twice in that time, but no other player had more than one. Like I’ve said all tournament, the road to the US Open runs through Belarus and the Mighty Mouse of Minsk. The Moroccanoil Global Brand Ambassador (yes, that’s treatment mist she’s spraying after matches, not water) HAS won her last 19 US Open matches, a streak that is good for 5th-longest in the modern history of the tournament. If she can complete the three-peat and take home her third straight US Open, she would get to 20 consecutive match wins, tying Steffi Graf for 4th all-time and moving with one of Serena Williams and Martina Navratilova for second-longest in the modern era. She has a ways to go before reaching Chris Evert's 31, or even Graf's 20, for that matter.

If tennis SGPs are your thing, may I suggest, as a leg, Aryna Sabalenka to Win 1+ Sets (-400) as the Belarusian has cashed that prop in 127 of her last 128 Grand Slam matches. Interestingly enough, Elena Rybakina has won the first set in all six WTA Finals meetings between these two ladies, so Rybakina to Win the First Set is tempting at +105. Additionally, I think the true value lies in the hybrid of these two props for the same plus-value. Each of Rybakina’s three Grand Slam Finals matches has gone the distance at three sets and she has covered the game spread in the last five WTA Finals meetings between these two. Of their 17 matchups, 10 have gone three sets including both Grand Slam Finals, five of the last nine, and three of their six hard court Finals matches.

This US Open Finals matchup is incredible because it offers value every way you slice it. On one hand, getting -138 odds on Aryna Sabalenka pre-match is about as good as it gets with all her aforementioned dominance, especially over the past 2+ years. On the other side, you can get +113 straight up on the #1 ranked player in the world…What?!

No matter the outcome, Elena Rybakina will remain the world’s #1, however, a win would be her first US Open title, and second Grand Slam title in 2026. It would also bring her the third jewel (Wimbledon ’22, Australian Open ’26) in her quest for the career Grand Slam, leaving only the French Open. If Sabalenka wins it would give her the US Open three-peat and her fifth career Grand Slam title. Today’s match is her ninth Grand Slam Finals match in the past four years, and this is the rubber match as she is 4-4.

Back this one to go the distance and for Rybakina to take the first set to get the fun started early.

Pick: Over 2.5 Sets (+105) & Elena Rybakina to Win First Set (+105)