2026 Valero Texas Open Picks & Predictions: Best PGA Bets
We’re one week out from The Masters, as the 2026 Valero Texas Open is set to tee off from TPC San Antonio on Thursday. 2025 winner Brian Harman returns to defend his title at +6000 odds, while outright betting favorites include Tommy Fleetwood (+1500), Ludvig Åberg, Russell Henley, and Robert MacIntyre between +1500 and +1800 odds.
TPC San Antonio is played on The Oaks Course. It’s a stock par 72 featuring overseeded Bermudagrass on all of its playing surfaces, so the 132 golfers in this field should be familiar with how to navigate based on recent Bermudagrass venues. TPC San Antonio runs 7,438 yards and features three-inch rough, with greens estimated to run 11.5 feet via Stimpmeter. Few water hazards exist, but there are more bunkers guarding greens and expected wind gusts at this elevated course.
We’re coming off a 3-0 sweep with my 2026 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks & Predictions: Best PGA Bets last week. All three of our Top 20 picks cashed at plus odds. Chris Gotterup hit as the shortest favorite at +135 with a T6 finish, Michael Thorbjornsen won at +170 with a T14 finish, and winner Gary Woodland easily cashed his Top 20 prop at a lucrative +380 odds.
Let’s keep the momentum rolling into the 2026 Valero Texas Open. I’ve got three best bets to tail ahead of Round 1 on Thursday. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more free bets and PGA Tour analysis throughout the 2026 PGA Tour season.
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Top 20 Finishing Position
Sepp Straka is a good place to start our search for golfers available to bet at plus odds in the Top 20 Finishing Position prop market. The 32-year-old Austrian hasn’t played since a T8 at The Players Championship, so he’s well-rested and ready to roll in his return to TPC San Antonio.
Straka has logged four T20 finishes in 2026, including four of his previous five events played. His last outing at the 2023 Valero Texas Open yielded a T22 finish.
Notable metrics include 12th in SG: Approach, 42nd in driving accuracy, and top 30 for 200+ yard approach shots. Straka also sits 21st in putting average this season, leading to 4.39 birdies per round, which is 20th on the PGA Tour.
Lock in Straka to secure a third straight top 20 finish at +145 odds.
Pick: Sepp Straka (+145)
Top 20 Finishing Position
Keith Mitchell is playing quality golf right now, and he’s strung together three straight top 20 finishes at the Valero Texas Open. The 34-year-old is fresh off a T14 at the Houston Open, leaning on his tee-to-green distance and accuracy to climb the leaderboard.
In 2026, Mitchell ranks ninth in SG: Off-the-Tee and 35th in SG: Approach. He’s got plenty of power, ranked 27th in driving distance, while sitting 23rd at finding greens in regulation at 69.9 percent.
Despite a leaky putter, Mitchell ranks 34th in scoring average and 32nd in birdie average in 2026. He can be a bit volatile at times. However, Mitchell’s tee-to-green prowess and previous top 20 finishes at TPC San Antonio are enough to warrant taking his top 20 prop at +175 odds.
Pick: Keith Mitchell (+175)
Top 20 Finishing Position
We’re going to run another top 20 finish prop back on Ryo Hisatsune this week. The 23-year-old Japanese native is 19th in total strokes gained this season, including 15th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 30th in SG: Approach.
Hisatsune’s driving accuracy is a huge plus this week. His iron accuracy is even more impressive, ranked third at finding greens in regulation (72.06%) and 37th in proximity. The flat stick is the lone weakness in Hisatsune’s bag right now, sitting just outside the top 100 in SG: Putting.
Logged a T5 finish at TPC San Antonio last season. Hisatsune is coming off a T30 at the Valspar Championship, so he’s had a week to rest and prepare for the Valero Texas Open.
Few golfers are playing better tee-to-green than Hisatsune right now, who has totaled four top 20 finishes in nine events played this year. Let’s finish with one final top 20 prop on Hisatsune at +200 odds.
Pick: Ryo Hisatsune (+200)