2026 Valero Texas Open Picks & Predictions: PGA Longshots
The PGA Tour departs from Houston and heads to San Antonio for this week’s 2026 Valero Texas Open. Tommy Fleetwood is the pre-tournament betting favorite at +1500 odds, while last year’s winner, Brian Harman, is a distant +6000 in the outright winner market.
Played on TPC San Antonio’s Oaks Course, this par 72 runs over 7,400 yards and features overseeded Bermudagrass. Designed by Pete Dye and Greg Norman, the rough stands three inches, and Texas high grasses are even taller with errant lies. Greens expect to run 11.5 feet via Stimpmeter, on the lower side of putting velocity to combat the expected wind gusts on this week’s forecast. Minimal water hazards but plenty of sprawling sand bunkers guarding the greens.
My 2026 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks & Predictions: PGA Longshots yielded a second outright winner in 2026 with Gary Woodland’s victory at +8000 odds. Woodland held a one-stroke lead into Sunday and prevailed with a final round 67, beating the field by five strokes in dominant fashion. He joins Akshay Bhatia (+7000) as our other longshot winner this season.
I’ve found a few more golfers in this week’s field who can make a run up the leaderboard for the outright win at the 2026 Valero Texas Open. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more free bets and PGA Tour analysis throughout the 2026 PGA Tour season.
2026 Valero Texas Open: PGA Longshots
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Ricky Castillo (+6500)
Ricky Castillo has had a strong year on the PGA Tour, notching his first career win at the Puerto Rico Open, in addition to a solo fifth-place finish at the Cognizant Classic. Despite Castillo missing the cut in his lone outing at TPC San Antonio, he’s primed to contend this week due to a couple of key metrics.
Ranks 44th in SG: Putting and driving distance, and 49th in scrambling. Also 18th in putting average, 22nd in putts per round, and 21st on par 4s.
Yes, Castillo lacks in tee-to-green accuracy and proximity, but his putter is a weapon. He’ll be able to scramble, which is a key component of winning the Valero Texas Open.
Austin Smotherman (+8000)
We’ve seen Austin Smotherman’s name atop a few leaderboards in 2026. The 31-year-old American has either gone top 20 or missed the cut in every event he’s completed this season.
At 80-1, we’re landing a great value on Smotherman to find his first PGA Tour win at TPC San Antonio this week. An underwhelming T61-MC don’t show success at this course from previous outings. However, Smotherman is playing well enough to warrant taking a longshot flier on his +8000 odds.
Ranks second in SG: Approach, 34th in SG: Off-the-Tee, and 39th in total strokes gained metrics. Smotherman sits 21st in total driving, mainly due to his fairway accuracy, while 15th at hitting greens in regulation (70.9%) and 11th in proximity.
Smotherman’s game is the total opposite of Castillo’s, yet we’re getting a better price on his odds in the outright winner betting market. Lock in Smotherman for his first PGA Tour win at +8000 odds this week.
Max Homa (+12500)
We’ll finish by taking a fan favorite, Max Homa, to end his win drought at +12500 odds in San Antonio this week. Homa has not posted a top 10 finish yet in 2026, but we have seen him log a T13 finish at the Cognizant Classic a month ago.
In five trips to TPC San Antonio, Homa’s best finish has been a T25 in 2024. In 2026, Homa ranks 43rd in SG: Approach and 55th in total driving.
The six-time PGA Tour winner has enough talent to capture momentum and climb a leaderboard, and it feels like TPC San Antonio is a course that fits his style of play. Let’s wrap up with one final wager on Max Homa in the outright betting market at 125-1 odds.