2026 Valspar Championship Picks & Predictions: PGA Longshots
The Valspar Championship is the fourth and final event in Florida for the 2026 PGA Tour season. 135 golfers will compete at Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club’s Copperhead Course in Palm Harbor, Florida, this week. It’s a par 71 that runs over 7,300 yards, including a closing three-hole stretch dubbed “The Snake Pit.”
Without Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy in the field, Xander Schauffele is the odds-on betting favorite in Tampa Bay this week at +1100 odds. He’s followed by Matt Fitzpatrick at +1300, Viktor Hovland at +1700, and Akshay Bhatia at +1900 odds.
My 2026 The Players Championship Picks & Predictions: PGA Longshots never had a legitimate chance on Sunday at TPC Sawgrass. Cameron Young’s thrilling comeback win over Matt Fitzpatrick was great entertainment, although none of our longshots were in the mix that late. Sahith Theegala (+7000) fired a 67 in Round 1 before fading away to a T32 finish. Nicolai Højgaard (+8000) wound up with a T27 finish, while Ryan Fox (+12500) never wound up teeing off.
Let’s lock in a few PGA longshots ahead of Round 1 teeing off at the 2026 Valspar Championship on Thursday. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more free bets and PGA Tour analysis throughout the 2026 PGA Tour season.
2026 Valspar Championship: PGA Longshots
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Max McGreevy (+6000)
Max McGreevy hasn’t had a lot of success at Innisbrook in three trips. However, we’re going to target McGreevy due to his tee-to-green efficiency.
He’s 30th in SG: Tee-to-Green this season. It’s produced a pair of top 30 finishes, although McGreevy has yet to post a better finish in eight outings.
Putting has been a massive struggle for McGreevy in 2026. Yet, he sits 15th in driving accuracy and 25th in hitting greens in regulation.
It’s enough to warrant a small 0.25 unit wager on McGreevy to secure his first PGA Tour win at a relatively short 60-1 price.
Bud Cauley (+7000)
Another tee-to-green tactician on the PGA Tour in this longshot range is Bud Cauley at 70-1 odds. Cauley is also without a top 10 finish in 2026, but he’s gone T18-T32 in his last two outings in Florida at Bay Hill and TPC Sawgrass.
The 36-year-old sits 54th in SG: Tee-to-Green. Cauley is also coming off a T4 finish at the 2025 Valspar Championship, going 69-66 in his previous two rounds.
None of his metrics stand out aside from his tee-to-green accuracy. In a return to a course where he found success a year ago, paired with a couple of quality showings in recent Florida events, let’s place our next longshot wager on Bud Cauley at +7000.
Billy Horschel (+8000)
Florida native Billy Horschel will look to build off a season-best T13 finish at TPC Sawgrass on Sunday when he tees off at the Copperhead Course on Thursday. Horschel has gone T12-T4 in his last two trips to the Valspar Championship, so he’s primed to make another run up the leaderboard this week.
At 80-1, we’re getting great odds on Horschel to contend for his first win since 2024. In 2026, Horschel ranks poorly in many key metrics, with putting standing out as the lone bright spot.
Despite a rough start to his season, the eight-time PGA Tour winner knows how to turn it on and can compete in a relatively light field this week. He’s been impressive at Innisbrook in his last two trips as well, making him a horse for the course ahead of Thursday’s opening round.
We’ll wrap up with one final wager on Billy Horschel to win the 2026 Valspar Championship as an 80-1 longshot.