2026 World Cup Picks & Predictions: Sunday (7/5)
Two more Round of 16 games will be played on Sunday, with Brazil battling Norway and Mexico hosting England. Below, I explain why I expect plenty of goals in both contests, with at least one underdog sneaking into the quarterfinals. Here are the best 2026 World Cup picks for Sunday, July 5th.
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Sunday’s Best 2026 World Cup Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Brazil vs. Norway
Defense is optional for this Round of 16 match, as both teams enter averaging over two goals per game. While Brazil has two shutouts at this World Cup, I'm not putting much stock in defensive performances against Scotland and Haiti when Erling Haaland is about to take the pitch.
While I expect plenty of goals, deciding which team will advance is a bit more difficult. Neither team looked particularly great in their Round of 32 match, with both needing a last-minute goal to advance. However, based on what I've seen at this tournament so far, Norway's defense is more likely to be a problem than Brazil's.
Norway has allowed eight goals, with four of those coming in games that the normal starting 11 played. Brazil has nine goals and 9.41 expected goals at this World Cup. If the Brazilians can put up that many chances in this match, they’ll advance in regulation.
Pick: Over 2.5 Goals (-135) & Brazil in Regulation (-120)
Mexico vs. England
How much impact will altitude and home-field advantage have on this match? If this were truly being played on a neutral field, perhaps England would be a no-brainer pick. Instead, England is barely favored, with odds sitting around +140 at every major sportsbook.
After an impressive 2-0 win over Ecuador, Mexico is yet to concede a goal in four World Cup matches. Meanwhile, goals haven't always been easy for England to come by. The English were shut out by Ghana, and it took until the 75th minute for them to finally break down the Congo defense.
While I expect England to be the first team to score against Mexico, I still think that the circumstances surrounding this game are favorable to the host nation. Playing at home at altitude is huge, but the defense has a lot of confidence going against an offense that has looked frustrated more often than not at this World Cup.
Additionally, England's defensive stats make the defense look better than it really is. The Panama and Ghana offenses aren't even remotely comparable to what Mexico is capable of. Additionally, allowing a goal to Congo and two to Croatia is alarming. Give me Mexico to score multiple times and advance to the quarterfinals.
Pick: Mexico to Advance (+115) & Mexico Over 1.5 Goals (+214)
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.