3 NCAA Tournament Teams to Fade: South Region (2024 March Madness)

The South Region is a fascinating one. It’s filled with top seeds I don’t fully trust to get to the Final Four. Yet, I have a hard time seeing many of those teams losing their first-round matchup.

The bad news for me is we’re strictly talking first round in this piece, although I’d regret at least not throwing out the fact that Houston is fully capable of losing in the second round to either Nebraska or Texas A&M. In fact, the Aggies nearly beat the Cougars very early in the season.

The South Region is filled with a ton of upside and perhaps even more uncertainty. Marquette is capable of staging a long tournament run, but the health of Tyler Kolek could put a cap on their ceiling. Kentucky is the biggest wild card of them all. The Wildcats could win the whole thing or be gone by the end of the weekend. Duke is supremely talented, yet rather soft. And I’m not buying Wisconsin’s turn of fate during the Big Ten Tournament as anything more than a hot stretch of shooting.

Here’s a look at the teams I’m putting on upset alert in the first round.

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2024 NCAA Tournament Teams to Fade from the South Region

Below are the teams that are on upset alert in the South Region.

(5) Wisconsin vs. (12) James Madison 

I’ll pick up where I left off in regards to picking on Wisconsin. The Badgers just don’t impress me, and this isn’t the best of matchups in the vaunted 5-12 spot.

While the Badgers found their stroke from beyond the arc to begin the Big Ten Tournament, their shooting fell back to earth when the competition stiffened. Against Purdue and Illinois, the Badgers shot 14-for-52 from deep. Now, they’ll face a Dukes team that defends the three at the second-best rate in the country.

James Madison’s offense is also rather balanced. The Dukes rank top-50 in both 3-point and 2-point percentages, they take a good amount but not an excessive amount of threes, and they clean up the offensive glass and get to the foul line at decent rates. James Madison shouldn’t face much resistance against the Badgers, who rank 271st in effective field goal percentage defensively.

One concern for James Madison is Wisconsin’s size, as the undersized Dukes could struggle against 7-footer Stephen Crowl. But while Wisconsin is truly a Goliath in size, I don’t think James Madison will be intimidated. The Dukes already have a win over a Big Ten team on their resume, taking down Michigan State on the road in the first game of the season.

The Dukes are live.

(7) Florida vs. (10) Colorado / (10) Boise State 

At full strength, Florida is a team I’d consider for a deep tournament run. But the Gators aren’t at full strength, as they lost 7-footer Micah Handlogten to an injury during the SEC Championship Game. Handlogten played an enormous role in helping Florida rate as the seventh-best offensive-rebounding team in the nation. For a Gators team that doesn’t shoot very well, that’s a massive loss in the middle.

While we don’t yet know who Florida will play in the Round of 64, both Colorado and Boise State are top-10 defensive rebounding teams that are capable of neutralizing Florida’s strength even with Handlogten healthy.

A matchup with a Buffaloes team that appears to be figuring things out at the right time would certainly be more daunting. But don’t be surprised if the Gators go down early.

(3) Kentucky vs. (14) Oakland 

I just have to bring up the Wildcats, who are the ultimate boom-or-bust team in this tournament. Kentucky plays elite offense and horrendous defense, a trait that doesn’t bode well for deep runs in the dance. And let’s not forget that John Calipari’s Wildcats have lost to a 15-seed before.

The reason this is on the bottom of the list, and still has slim chances of actually occurring, is that Kentucky could simply go nuclear from three against an Oakland team that primarily plays a zone defense. Kentucky made 41.2% of its threes this season, the best mark in the nation.

However, if the Wildcats have a cold shooting day there could be an upset brewing, as Oakland plays at a sluggish pace and shoots a lot of threes, two variables that help an underdog.

I’m not saying put Oakland through in all your brackets. Just don’t be stunned if Cal lets us down again.

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