3 NFL Week 1 Bets to Fade (2025)

by Mike Fanelli |
Sep 06, 2025

Everyone loves betting on the NFL. However, knowing which bets to make is critical. It's also important to know which bets you should avoid making.

Today, I have three bets you should avoid making in Week 1. I also have three bets in the same games you should make instead. Let's dive into it!

NFL Week 1 Bets to Fade

Avoid Betting Terry McLaurin Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Last year, McLaurin averaged 66.2 receiving yards per game. However, the veteran will likely struggle to start this season after his training camp hold in over a new contract.
Unfortunately, he struggled against the Giants, averaging 20.5 yards per game despite seeing a 21.6% target share and a 22% target per route run rate in those games last year.
Meanwhile, New York added Paulson Adebo and Jevon Holland to their secondary and drafted Abdul Carter this offseason. Their pass defense will be significantly better in 2025.

Instead, Bet Chris Rodriguez Jr. Over 25.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Rodriguez averaged 19.2 rushing yards per game last year in a very limited role. However, he averaged a team-high 6.9 yards per attempt in the preseason.
The Commanders traded away Brian Robinson Jr., opening the door for Rodriguez to start in Week 1. Last year, he had 11 attempts for 52 yards in his lone matchup against the Giants.
Unfortunately, New York did little to improve their run defense this offseason. Last year, they gave up 110.4 yards per game to running backs, including 114 and 171 in the two matchups against Washington.

Avoid Betting David Njoku Under 4.5 Receptions (-110)

Last season, Njoku averaged 5.8 receptions per game. However, he had 18 receptions in the two games against Cincinnati despite seeing most of his targets from Dorian Thompson-Robinson.
More importantly, the veteran averaged six receptions on nine targets per game in the five regular-season contests with Joe Flacco under center in 2023.
The Bengals had an awful pass defense in 2024 and will again in 2025. Last year, they surrendered 6.5 receptions per game to tight ends, the most in the NFL.

Instead, Bet Joe Flacco Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+110)

Flacco averaged 1.5 passing touchdowns per game last season with the Indianapolis Colts. The veteran had two or more touchdowns in four of his six starts (66.7%).
He was outstanding coming off the couch for the Browns in 2023, averaging 2.6 touchdowns per game. Flacco had at least two in every outing.
Unfortunately, Cincinnati might have the worst defense in the NFL. Last year, they gave up 1.7 touchdowns per game to quarterbacks, the fourth-most in the league.

Avoid Betting Nick Chubb Under 40.5 Rushing Yards (-105)

While Chubb is no longer a superstar, the veteran will be the lead running back for Houston with Joe Mixon out of the lineup because of a foot/ankle injury.
Last year, Chubb averaged 41.5 rushing yards per game despite coming off a gruesome knee injury and playing behind an awful offensive line.
The Rams struggled to stop the run last season. They gave up 101.5 yards per game to running backs, the 12th-most in the NFL, allowing 112 or more in nearly a third of the contests.

Instead, Bet Dalton Schultz Over 2.5 Receptions (-165)

Houston won't have Stefon Diggs or Tank Dell this season. Furthermore, Christian Kirk won't play in Week 1, while it's Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel's NFL regular-season debut.
Therefore, Schultz should see an increase in work in the passing game. Last year, he averaged 3.1 receptions per game, totaling three or more in 11 of 17 contests (64.7%).
Meanwhile, Los Angeles surrendered 6.5 receptions to tight ends last season, the second-most in the NFL. Furthermore, PFF believes Schultz will have several matchup advantages against the Rams' defense.

Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.