3 Super Bowl LIV Prop Bets our Projections Love (2020)
With a lot of Super Bowl props on the board, it’s sometimes hard to sift through them all and find which book is offering the best value on each. Using our Props Consensus tool, we’ve taken a look at the options on the board and have found four decent props to bet on for Super Bowl LIV – including one prop that could present a middling opportunity later in the week.
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More Passing Touchdowns
To me, this seems like a logical play to go with Mahomes here. The Chiefs are a pass-oriented team while the 49ers are a run-oriented team. This season, Mahomes has 26 passing touchdowns, but keep in mind that he missed nearly three games. As for Garoppolo, he had 27 touchdown passes, but the trends of both quarterbacks are what concern me.
Garoppolo didn’t have a passing touchdown in the NFC Championship Game and has just three passing touchdowns in his last five games. Mahomes has gone in the other direction with eight touchdowns in his two playoff games and 13 in his last five games. We have to lay some juice with this prop, but it seems logical that Mahomes wins this one.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes -240
Travis Kelce Receptions
Travis Kelce is obviously one of the Chiefs’ key weapons on offense. He had 97 receptions in the regular season and has added 13 more in the playoffs. He’s usually right around the seven-catch mark as he’s done it exactly seven times this year, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he stayed under 6.5 at the Super Bowl.
The 49ers were pretty solid at defending tight ends this year as they’ve allowed 84 catches to the position in 18 games (4.7 per outing). They also allowed just 39.8 yards-per-game, which was the fourth-fewest. Keep in mind that they played a chunk of the year without linebacker Kwon Alexander, who helps defend the position. He’s back, though.
Kelce will get his fair share of catches, but I still think he’ll be under 6.5 at the end of the day. Note that FanDuel is the only remaining book listed that has this O/U at 6.5, with the rest having moved to 5.5. Lock in the under on FanDuel now!
Pick: Under 6.5 -148
Raheem Mostert Rushing Attempts
This number opened at 15 and has climbed up to 15.5 at most shops, but I actually think that’s the wrong direction. Consider this: Prior to the NFC Championship Game, Mostert had gone over 15.5 carries just once in his entire career. A lot of people seem to like the over because Tevin Coleman has yet to practice, but he’s been running on a side field. The Niners are hopeful he’ll play, but even if he doesn’t, they still have Matt Breida and even Jeff Wilson Jr. The 49ers go with the hot hand, and while Mostert was the guy in the NFC Championship Game, he’s mostly shared the load this season and has been well under 15.5 carries.
Pick: Under 15.5 +110
Check out our consensus game prop odds for Super Bowl LIV! >>
Dave Golokhov is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Dave, check out his archive and follow him @davegolokhov.