3M Open: PGA Best Weekend Picks

TPC Twin Cities has been a smooth ride for some of the field at the 3M Open this week, but it’s certainly challenged others with its four-inch rough and frequent water hazards. Taylor Pendrith sits atop the leaderboard with a two-stroke lead at 12-under-par following back-to-back bogey-free rounds, making him the odds-on favorite to win his second PGA Tour event in 2024.

Other notable names in contention post-cut include Sam Burns (T7), Sahith Theegala (T9), Tony Finau (T18), and Cam Davis (T26). The wind picked up late in Friday’s round, which made the narrow fairways even more difficult to find off-the-tee. Bentgrass greens and fairways have been a big change for those who competed overseas at the Scottish Open and British Open, so expect some of the golfers who made the cut to continue adapting and improving their scorecards on Saturday and Sunday.

 I’ve found five golfers worth betting in the outright winner market heading into Round 3 this weekend. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more free bets and weekly analysis.

2024 3M Open Best Weekend Picks

These plays are 1 unit, 0.50 unit, and 0.25 unit plays. Or one percent, half a percent, and a quarter percent of your betting bankroll. Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Taylor Pendrith (+260)

There’s a reason we’re seeing oddsmakers assign such a big gap between Pendrith and the rest of the field. At +260, the next closest golfer in the outright winner market is Sam Burns at +1200. Pendrith ranks second in strokes gained: off-the-tee, 17th SG: approach, seventh SG: putting, and has found 31 of 36 greens in regulation.

He’s yet to record a bogey and is using a blend of power and accuracy, with his signature putting prowess on the greens to climb the leaderboard. It’s not much value compared to where he began the week, but +260 could quickly turn into minus odds with another bogey-free outing in Round 3. A one unit wager placed on Pendrith is recommended.

Sahith Theegala (+1400)

Round 2 was a struggle for Sahith Theegala until the final seven holes, starting with a bogey on the first hole inside of eight feet. 10 consecutive pars showcased Theegala’s quality scrambling ability despite missing greens in regulation.

We saw a much better version of Theegala in Round 1, although missed greens were also a concern on Thursday. He’s still 25th SG: putting, eighth SG: around the green, and sixth SG: off-the-tee this week. Sitting at -7-under-par means another quality round played on Saturday can put Theegala inside of the top-five while erasing a bit of the gap Pendrith has created against the field.

Let’s stake half a unit on Theegala to receive seven units of profit at 14-1 odds.

Jhonattan Vegas (+1600)

Jhonattan Vegas has played well at this event in past appearances and this time has been no exception. Vegas ranks third SG: approach and T14 SG: putting through two rounds. He needs a strong finish to improve his 149th FedExCup ranking for a shot at the top-70 in a couple of weeks.

Expect Vegas to stay aggressive, leaning on his irons and putter to contend, sitting only four strokes behind Pendrith at 8-under-par, good enough for T5 on the current leaderboard. A quarter unit wager returns four units of profit, which would be Vegas’ first win since the 2017 RBC Canadian Open.

Alex Smalley (+3500)

Alex Smalley finds himself in the exact same scenario as Vegas, sitting T5 on this leaderboard but 139th in the FedExCup rankings. It’s been a tough year for Smalley, however, he’s looked sharp at TPC Twin Cities this week.

Smalley got hot at the end of Round 2, draining five birdies on the back-nine to surge into T5 ahead of Round 3. Ranked fifth in SG: off-the-tee, eighth SG: approach, and T3 for greens in regulation, his putter has also been a weapon, ranking inside the top-ten for putts per GIR. At 35-1, Smalley is a huge value to contend for his first career win, so one more 0.25 unit wager is more than sufficient.

Cam Davis (+5000)

Despite a disappointing finish in Round 2, Cam Davis has the skillset and comfort level at TPC Twin Cities to make a run during the weekend. We just saw the Aussie win the Rocket Mortgage Classic for the second time in his career a few weeks ago and he’s still in striking position, sitting just outside the current top-25.

Davis went cold on the back-nine on Friday with only one birdie and two bogeys, but he does rank third SG: around the green, 21st SG: off-the-tee, and 33rd SG: approach. Greens in regulation and putting remain issues, while six bogeys have kept Davis from sitting in a much more comfortable spot on the leaderboard.

A final 0.25 unit wager at 50-1 odds returns 12.5 units of profit, so don’t hesitate to sprinkle on Davis before he potentially goes on a heater to climb into serious contention this weekend.

Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for BettingPros and FantasyPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.