4 NFL Week 1 Bets to Fade (2023)

by Mike Fanelli |
Sep 10, 2023

Everyone loves betting on the NFL. However, knowing which bets to make is critical. It's also important to know which bets you should avoid making.

Today, I have four bets you should avoid making this weekend. I also have four bets in the same games you should make instead. Let's dive into it!

NFL Week 1 Bets to Fade

All odds via DraftKings.

Avoid Betting Chris Olave Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Olave totaled over 68.5 receiving yards in only five of 15 contests last season (33%).
He averaged only 64.5 receiving yards per game in the 12 matchups without Michael Thomas.
The second-year wide receiver was targeted on only 12.5% of his routes ran by Derek Carr during the preseason.
By comparison, Olave was targeted on over 26.4% of his routes run in 2022.

Instead, Bet Michael Thomas Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Despite struggling with injuries the past three years, the veteran had a 21.2% target per route run rate last season.
Last year, the veteran averaged 57 receiving yards per game, totaling at least 49 yards in every contest.
Bettors get the same payout for both wide receivers but need 27 fewer receiving yards from Thomas than Olave to hit the over.
The Titans surrendered 188.2 receiving yards per game to wide receivers last season, the most in the NFL.

Avoid Betting J.K. Dobbins To Score Anytime Touchdown (+110)

Last year, the Texans gave up 22 rushing touchdowns to running backs, the most in the NFL.
Houston also ranked 12th in receiving touchdowns surrendered to running backs in 2022.
However, Dobbins has never been a high touchdown producer. He has 12 scrimmage touchdowns on 251 touches in his career (4.8% TD rate).
More importantly, the running back has only three touchdowns over the past two years, finding the end zone in only two contests last season.

Instead, Bet J.K. Dobbins Over 59.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Despite a knee injury that cost him 26 games over the past two years, Dobbins averaged 65 rushing yards per game in 2022.
Furthermore, the former Ohio State star averaged 99.3 rushing yards per contest over the final four games last season, totaling at least 59 in every matchup.
Dobbins also averaged 53.7 rushing yards per game as a rookie despite playing under 50% of the snaps.
Last year, the Texans surrendered 2,412 rushing yards to running backs (141.9 per game), 10.3% more than any other team.

Avoid Betting Michael Pittman Jr. Under 49.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Everyone is worried Pittman will struggle with Anthony Richardson under center. Yet, according to PFF, Richardson completed 60.9% of his pass attempts between 10-19 yards last year.
Pittman was at his best between 10-19 yards last season, posting a 95.6 PFF receiving grade. He also scored 50% of his touchdowns in that receiving depth.
Despite playing with three awful quarterbacks in 2022, Pittman averaged 57.8 receiving yards per game. He totaled at least 53 receiving yards in 62.5% of the contests.
The Jaguars surrendered 139.8 receiving yards per game to wide receivers last season. Yet, they gave up 134 receiving yards to Pittman in his only matchup against Jacksonville.

Instead, Bet Evan Engram Under 4.5 Receptions (-150)

Engram had a 17.1% target share last season. However, he won't see anywhere near that target share this year with Calvin Ridley on the team.
Last season, the Colts gave up the 11th-fewest receptions to tight ends, surrendering only 4.3 per contest.
More importantly, the veteran tight end had a hot three-week run late last season, averaging 8.7 receptions per game. However, Engram averaged only 3.4 receptions per contest in the other 14 matchups in 2022.
The veteran tight end had an 18.6% target per route run rate last season. Yet, Engram had under 4.5 receptions in nearly 60% of the contests last year.

Avoid Betting Aaron Rodgers Under 233.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Last year, the future Hall of Famer averaged only 217.4 passing yards per game, a career low. However, Rodgers played most of the season with a thumb injury on his throwing hand.
By comparison, he averaged at least 250 passing yards per game in the previous four years.
Rodgers had 203 passing yards in the Week 8 matchup against the Bills last season despite Allen Lazard missing the contest. Furthermore, Romeo Doubs was the only Packer with more than 37 receiving yards in that game.
Despite catching passes from Zach Wilson and Mike White in the two contests against Buffalo last season, Garrett Wilson averaged 85 receiving yards per game, totaling at least 78 in both matchups. He will significantly help Rodgers on Monday night.

Instead, Bet Josh Allen Under 253.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Allen has been a superstar since the Bills acquired Stefon Diggs, averaging 270.1 passing yards per game over the past three years.
However, he has struggled against the Jets, averaging 254.5 passing yards per game in his eight career healthy matchups against New York.
Furthermore, Allen has averaged only 239.3 passing yards per game in the four contests against the Jets, with Robert Saleh as the head coach. He has thrown for under 240 yards in three constructive matchups against New York, including 205 or fewer yards in both contests last season.
The superstar quarterback tends to run more against elite defenses. Last year, Allen had 19 rushing attempts against the Jets, totaling at least nine attempts in both contests. By comparison, he averaged 7.5 rushing attempts per game in the other 14 matchups.

Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.