4 NFL Week 16 Bets to Fade (2023)

by Mike Fanelli |
Dec 23, 2023

Everyone loves betting on the NFL. However, knowing which bets to make is critical. It's also important to know which bets you should avoid making.

Today, I have four bets you should avoid making this weekend. I also have four bets in the same games you should make instead. Let's dive into it!

NFL Week 16 Bets to Fade

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook. | All stats are according to Fantasy Points Data.

Avoid Betting Chase Brown Under 2.5 Receptions (-140)

Brown has three receptions in back-to-back games. The rookie has the third-most receptions on the team over the past two weeks, posting a 46% target per route run rate.
He joins Ja'Marr Chase and Joe Mixon as the only Bengals with three or more receptions in each of the past two contests.
Cincinnati won't have Chase this week. Therefore, expect Jake Browning to target the running backs more in the passing game.
The Steelers have given up the fourth-most receptions to running backs over the past two weeks (13), surrendering at least five in both matchups.

Instead, Bet Pat Freiermuth Over 2.5 Receptions (-180)

Freiermuth has averaged three receptions per game this season. The veteran has at least three receptions in six of the past seven games, including four consecutive.
He had nine receptions (a third of his 2023 total) in the Week 12 matchup against the Bengals, a career-high.
The Bengals have surrendered the most receptions to tight ends this year, giving up 6.8 per game.
Opposing tight ends have had eight or more receptions against Cincinnati in six of eight games since the bye week, including four consecutive contests.

Avoid Betting Breece Hall Under 26.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Last week, Hall had only six receiving yards. It was his sixth game this season with under 20 yards.
However, he averaged 47 yards per game over his previous eight contests, totaling 29 or more in 75% of those matchups.
The Commanders have given up the 10th-most yards to running backs this year, allowing 35.8 per game.
Washington has surrendered 45.4 yards per game to running backs over the past 10 weeks, giving up 35 or more in all but one contest.

Instead, Bet Sam Howell Over 0.5 Interceptions (-165)

After starting the season playing well, Howell has struggled lately. He has six interceptions over the past four games, totaling at least one in every matchup.
Howell leads the NFL in interceptions (15), throwing at least one in 71.4% of the games. Furthermore, he has thrown two or more interceptions in 35.7% of the contests.
Washington won't have Brian Robinson Jr. this week, which should lead to more pass attempts for Howell and opportunities to throw an interception.
The Jets have 12 interceptions this season, the 13th-most in the NFL. They record two or more interceptions in 28.6% of their games this year.

Avoid Betting Noah Brown Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Last week, Brown had eight receptions for 82 receiving yards against the Tennessee Titans without C.J. Stroud or Nico Collins playing. However, Collins is on track to play Sunday.
Brown has taken advantage of poor pass defenses, totaling over 150 yards against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Cincinnati Bengals. Stroud played in both of those games.
However, Brown has averaged only 32.7 yards per game outside of those two matchups, totaling more than 37 yards only twice.
Cleveland has an elite cornerback unit. They have given up the fourth-fewest yards to wide receivers this season.

Instead, Bet David Njoku Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Njoku has averaged 50.3 receiving yards per game in 2023, the second-most on the team. However, he has been on fire lately.
The star tight end has averaged 60.2 yards per game over the past nine weeks, totaling 54 or more in 77.8% of those contests.
He has averaged 70.7 yards per game with Joe Flacco under center, including 91 or more in back-to-back matchups.
Houston has struggled with opposing tight ends this year. They have surrendered the fourth-most yards to tight ends, giving up 59.7 per game.

Avoid Betting Saquon Barkley Under 55.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Last week, Barkley had nine rushing attempts for 14 yards against a talented New Orleans Saints defense. Yet, the superstar has averaged 72.5 yards per game this season.
He has averaged 83.6 yards per game since returning from the high ankle sprain, totaling 66 or more in seven of the past eight contests before last week's matchup.
The Eagles have held running backs to 72.4 yards per game this year, the eighth-fewest in the NFL. However, their run defense has been awful lately.
They have given up 106.2 yards per game to running backs and the ninth-highest explosive run rate since their bye week, surrendering 92 or more yards in every game.

Instead, Bet Boston Scott to Score an Anytime Touchdown (+260)

Scott hasn't scored a touchdown this year. The last time he found the end zone was in Week 18 last season against the Giants.
However, Scott is a Giant killer: He has 10 offensive touchdowns in eight career games against New York.
The running back has scored at least one rushing touchdown in all but one game in his career against the Giants, including five straight matchups.
New York has surrendered the fifth-most rushing touchdowns to running backs (12). Furthermore, the game is on Christmas Day. Do you believe in miracles?

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.