4 NFL Week 9 Bets to Fade (2023)

by Mike Fanelli |
Nov 05, 2023

Everyone loves betting on the NFL. However, knowing which bets to make is critical. It's also important to know which bets you should avoid making.

Today, I have four bets you should avoid making this weekend. I also have four bets in the same games you should make instead. Let's dive into it!

NFL Week 9 Bets to Fade

All stats are according to Fantasy Points Data.

Mahomes hasn't played up to his typical MVP form. He has a 4.9% touchdown rate, a career low. Last year, his touchdown rate led the NFL (6.3%).
The superstar is on pace for 32 passing touchdowns, the lowest of his career when playing every game. Mahomes led the NFL with 41 touchdowns last season.
He has averaged 1.9 touchdowns per game, totaling more than two only twice. Both of those games came against awful pass defenses (Los Angeles Chargers - 4 and Chicago Bears - 3)
Miami has given up only 1.5 touchdowns per game this season, holding quarterbacks to under two touchdowns in 62.5% of their games. They have surrendered more than two touchdowns only once.

Rice is second on the team in targets (39) and receiving yards (361), only behind Travis Kelce. However, he is sixth in routes run (129), averaging 16.1 per game.
Yet, he has averaged 47.4 yards per game with Kelce playing, totaling 56 or more in 57.1% of those games, including three straight.
The rookie has run nearly 60% of his routes from the slot, meaning he will see plenty of Miami slot cornerback Kader Kohou.
According to PFF, Kohou has allowed an 83.3% completion rate. He has given up 18.1% of the team's receiving yards for the year, surrendering 44 yards per game and 9.5 yards per target.

The veteran has averaged 13.3 rushing attempts per game this season. Furthermore, he has averaged 14.5 attempts per game since the team acquired Cam Akers.
Mattison has averaged 14 attempts per game over the past three weeks, seeing 16 or more twice. By comparison, Akers has 20 total attempts over those three games.
Minnesota has the lowest rushing rate in neutral game script this season. However, that will change this week, with the Vikings wanting to run the ball and limiting Jaren Hall's pass attempts.
The Falcons have had a solid run defense this season, giving up 3.76 yards per rushing attempt. However, they gave up over 5.12 yards per attempt on 25 attempts last week.

Sunday will be Pitts' first career game without Drake London. However, he did average 56.2 receiving yards per game as a rookie with the No. 1 wide receiver (Calvin Ridley) out of the lineup.
Even with London playing every game this season, Pitts has averaged 41.6 yards per game. He has had at least 41 in 62.5% of the games, including 43 or more in three of the past four contests.
Many believe the Falcons' passing attack will improve with the switch at quarterback from Desmond Ridder to Taylor Heinicke.
The Vikings have given up the fifth-fewest yards to tight ends this season, surrendering only 36.1 per game. However, they have given up 51.8 yards per game to tight ends over the past month, including 88 or more twice.

Moss is second in the NFL in rushing yards (589) and yards per game (84.1) entering Week 9 despite missing Week 1. He also has had at least 57 yards in all but one game this year.
He has averaged 77.3 yards per game since Jonathan Taylor made his season debut, including 57 or more yards in both games that Taylor has played 50% or more of the snaps.
The Panthers’ run defense played well last week against an awful Houston Texans rushing attack. However, they gave up 134.3 yards per game to running backs before that matchup.
Carolina has allowed the sixth-highest explosive run rate (5.8%) and the third-highest yards after contact allowed per rushing attempt (3.27) this season.

The veteran has averaged 83 receiving yards per game this season, totaling 72 or more in all but the first two contests. He has averaged 103 yards per game since Week 2, totaling 107 or more three times.
Thielen has accounted for 37% of his team's receiving yards market share, the eight-highest in the NFL. The next closest Panther is DJ Chark (15.4%).
He has a 34.4% first-read target rate, 14.4% higher than anyone else on the team. Thielen ranks 13th in the NFL in this metric.
Indianapolis has given up the seventh-most yards to wide receivers entering Week 9, surrendering 198.1 per game. They've given up 216 or more in nearly half the games this year.

Avoid Betting Breece Hall Under 80.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115)

Last week, Hall struggled on the ground with 12 rushing attempts for 17 yards. Yet, he had six receptions for 76 receiving yards.
Despite being on a pitch count for over half the games this season, he has averaged 63.3 rushing yards and 90.3 rushing and receiving yards per game.
Hall has had at least 93 rushing and receiving yards in 57.1% of the games this season, including three straight contests off the pitch count.
The Chargers have given up 129.7 rushing and receiving yards to running backs this year. They've surrendered 91 or more yards in every game, including 122 or more in over half the matchups.

Despite not having Aaron Rodgers, Wilson has averaged 72.5 receiving yards per game since Week 1. He has 80 or more yards in half of those games.
Over the past two weeks, he has averaged 95 yards per game. The star receiver has averaged 81.3 yards per game during the team's three-game winning streak.
Wilson is the team's passing offense. He has accounted for 35.1% of the team's receiving yards market share, the 12th-highest in the NFL. The next closest Jet is Allen Lazard at 19.1%.
The Chargers have surrendered the sixth-most yards to wide receivers entering Week 9, giving up nearly 200 yards per game. They've allowed opposing No. 1 wide receivers to average 115.9 yards per game, totaling 149 or more in almost half the contests.

Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.