4 Super Bowl LV Bets to Fade (2021)
Sometimes, you’ve got to be the contrarian, the troll, the person who plays the Don’t Pass Line when playing craps. Sometimes, you’ve got to fade the public.
There’s no better opportunity to fade the public than the Super Bowl, which is easily the most bet on sporting event of the year.
When fading the public on Super Bowl Sunday, my general strategy is to fade “Over†and “Yes†props on the game and individual players. The public’s mentality when it sits down to watch a game is to naturally root for tons of points and tons of stats. Rooting for unders might be more nerve-wracking, it tends to be the more profitable strategy.
With all this in mind, let’s get into the four bets I’m fading for Super Bowl LV.
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Fade #1: Over 56.5
As I said, the public wants points. Plus, this game features two potent offenses led by Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady. The public’s natural inclination is to expect plenty of points. That’s why 71% of the action is on the over, according to The Action Network.
But despite the over getting the vast majority of the bets, the total has actually dropped from 57 to 56.5. Why’s that? Because sharper bettors are playing the under. Per The Action Network, 59% of the money is on the under.
If you’re afraid to take the under in a game with this much offensive firepower, I completely understand. Luckily, I have a plan that could give us the best of both worlds.
Teams tend to start conservatively in the Super Bowl, no matter how good their offenses are. In the last 11 Super Bowls, only twice have the two teams combined to score more than 10 points in the first quarter.
The pick: My play here is to take the under 10.5 first-quarter points, then look to bet on the over live at a better number.
Fade #2: Mike Evans over 63.5 receiving yards
Mike Evans has cashed twice for me this postseason on the “First Touchdown Scorer†prop, something for which I am eternally grateful. However, Evans hasn’t really done much else after scoring the first touchdowns in both games.
Evans didn’t catch another pass after hauling in the game’s first touchdown against the New Orleans Saints in the Divisional Round. In the NFC Championship Game, he caught just two more passes after his touchdown.
When the Buccaneers are in the red zone, Evans is definitely Brady’s top choice. When the Bucs are driving, Chris Godwin is clearly Brady’s preferred choice. In three playoff games, Godwin has 28 targets to Evans’ 21, 10 of which game in Tampa’s first playoff game against Washington.
In the first meeting between the Chiefs and the Buccaneers, Evans scored two times but caught only three total passes for 52 yards. Meanwhile, Godwin had 97 yards on eight receptions. Plus, Evans has only exceeded 63.5 yards just seven times this season.
The pick: I’ll take Evans at 10/1 to score the first touchdown again, but I’m taking the under 63.5 receiving yards and the over on Godwin’s receiving yardage total.
Fade #3: Kansas City Chiefs running backs yardage totals
Last year, Chiefs running back Damien Williams was potentially robbed of the Super Bowl MVP award. This year, the Chiefs running back situation is a messy committee I want no part of.
Let’s start with the obvious: Tampa Bay’s run defense is the best in the league. The Buccaneers have allowed only 3.6 net yards per rush attempt this season. Tampa has allowed an average of 61.3 rushing yards, specifically to opposing running backs. Only Dalvin Cook rushed for over 100 yards against this stout Buccaneers front.
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In last week’s AFC Championship Game, Darrel Williams took the bulk of the work, rushing 13 times for 52 yards. Forty of those yards came in the fourth quarter when the Chiefs were simply running out the clock. Clyde Edwards-Helaire returned from injury but only carried the ball six times for seven yards.
Making matters worse is Le’Veon Bell is expected to be available for the game. That means the Chiefs could utilize a three-headed committee.
Bell currently doesn’t have a yardage prop, but Williams and Edwards-Helaire are both listed at 30.5. While there’s certainly a chance one of these backs pop a long run, I have a tough time seeing both of these tailbacks getting past 31 yards considering the matchup.
The pick: Take the under 30.5 rushing yards props for Williams and Edwards-Helaire.
Fade #4: Yes to any safety (+800), special teams score (+550), or overtime prop (+1150)
These three bets offer some of the juiciest payouts among all Super Bowl betting props. You know why? Because they rarely happen.
A safety has occurred nine times in the Super Bowl. Amazingly, we had a safety occur in three straight Super Bowls from 2012-14. The first one was an intentional grounding in the end zone penalty called on Brady in Super Bowl 46. The second was an intentional safety taken by the Baltimore Ravens to kill the clock in Super Bowl 47. And the third occurred on the first play from scrimmage in Super Bowl 48 when a snap whizzed past Peyton Manning and into the end zone.
While +800 is an attractive price on a safety, it’s an extremely low percentage wager.
A special teams score has happened just 10 times in Super Bowl history, the most recent being Percy Harvin in Super Bowl 48. The kickoff return has practically been phased by new safety rules, as there were only 15 kickoff and punt return touchdowns scored this season.
While Kansas City accounted for two of those return scores, it’s still doubtful to happen. Tampa Bay had the second-highest touchback percentage in the league at 84.2%, and the Chiefs weren’t far behind at 74.2%.
Overtime has occurred only once in the Super Bowl, and that was Super Bowl 51.
The pick: Don’t get sucked in by the juicy odds; leave these bets alone.
I wouldn’t recommend taking the “No†on these props since you’re paying so much juice. However, I do have some prop recommendations that are more likely to happen. I’d bet on either team to miss an extra point (+195). Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker missed six PATs this season, while Bucs kicker Ryan Succop missed five. I’d also bet on either team to miss a field goal (+115) and for either team to successfully convert a 2-point attempt (+230).
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Matt Barbato is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him @RealMattBarbato.