49ers vs. Chiefs NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 7)
Introducing the Week 7 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.
Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.
Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 7 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the 49ers vs. Chiefs.
Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week X Betting Primer>>
Kansas City Chiefs @ San Francisco 49ers
Sides:
- The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 10 home games.
- The road team has covered the spread in 14 of the 49ers' last 18 games.
- SF is 13-6 ATS when they score 23-plus points since the start of 2023.
- The 49ers were the most overrated team at home in 2023 ATS, going 3-7, which was fourth worst in the NFL in 2023. So far, in 2024, they are 2-1 ATS at home. Covered against Patriots/Jets, not against Arizona.
- The 49ers have covered the spread twice in their last 10 home games.
- The 49ers are 9-9 ATS as road favorites in their last 18 games.
- The Chiefs have covered the spread in nine of their last 11 games.
- The Chiefs have won each of their last 11 games.
- The underdogs have covered the spread in 12 of the Chiefs' last 18 games.
- The Chiefs have covered the spread in each of their last four games against the 49ers.
- The Chiefs have won each of their last seven games as underdogs.
- Patrick Mahomes is 7-1-1 ATS as an underdog (87.5%) per BetMGM-highest ATS percentage for any QB as an underdog or favorite among starting QBs.
Totals:
- Six of the 49ers' last eight games have gone OVER the total points line.
- The 49ers are 2-1 toward the over at home, averaging 47 points per game.
- Nine of the Chiefs' last 12 games have gone UNDER the total points line (11 of the last 14).
- Since the start of 2023, the Chiefs have not allowed a team to score 27 points against them.
- They are undefeated when they hold teams to 17 points or less.
- KC is 2-1 toward the over at home this season.
- Each of the 49ers’ last four games against AFC opponents has gone OVER the total points line. The 49ers’ Defensive/Special Teams have scored a touchdown in each of their last two home games.
Overall:
Is the Chiefs offense bad? No. It's just not been very flashy. Per Next Gen Stats, the Chiefs offense has recorded the 2nd-highest overall success rate this season (50.2%) behind only the Lions (50.3%), despite generating an explosive play at the 2nd-lowest rate in the NFL (10.3%).
The Chiefs’ lack of explosiveness specifically centers around their rushing offense-the Chiefs have generated an explosive play on just 4.0% of their run plays this season, the lowest rate of any offense in a season since 2016. However, the Chiefs have recorded a 51.3% rushing success rate this season, the second-highest of any offense in a season since 2016 (2024 Rams, 52.8%). Of the Chiefs’ six explosive runs this season, two have been Patrick Mahomes scramble attempts.
The TLDR version of the Next Gen Stats. The Chiefs have been efficient on offense. Nothing more. Nothing less. They rank seventh in first downs per game.
But coming off a bye week, I bet they look to generate more explosive plays with rookie Xavier Worthy. Andy Reid spoke about Worthy's development: “He keeps getting better, and that's exciting."
They could use Worthy a lot in this matchup. The 49ers defense has allowed 278 deep passing yards this season, the sixth-most in the NFL.
I also expect KC to run the ball effectively. Per Next Gen Stats, Chiefs rushers have been tackled for a loss or no gain on a league-low 9.4% of their designed runs this season, the lowest rate in a season by any offense in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016).
In a similar vein, Chiefs rushers have been contacted behind the line of scrimmage on just 31.3% of their designed runs this season, the second-lowest rate in the NFL behind the Rams (30.3%). The 49ers defense ranks below-average in both percentage of designed runs tackled for a loss or no gain (16.5%) and percentage of designed runs contact behind the line of scrimmage this season (37.0%).
As for the 49ers offense against KC's defense.... here's what I expect.
Per Next Gen Stats, the Chiefs have played man coverage on two-thirds (66.7%) of their total snaps with a single high safety this season, the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL behind the Jaguars (72.0%).
Overall, the Chiefs have allowed 6.1 yards per attempt when playing man coverage this season, identical to their average last season (6.1). Brock Purdy faced man coverage on 63.4% of his dropbacks against the Chiefs defense in Super Bowl LVIII, his second-highest rate faced in his career (incl. postseason). The 49ers are 1-3 when Purdy has faced man coverage on at least 50% of his dropbacks.
I also expect KC to thwart SF's run game. Jordan Mason is banged up and has slowed down dramatically since his hot start. His rushing yards have dropped in three straight games. And no team has allowed fewer fantasy points per game to RBs this season than the Chiefs. Fourth in fewest yards per carry allowed (3.7), 6th in fewest EPA/rush allowed, and third in rushing yards allowed above expectation (-0.30).
Betting on this game can really come down to a few simple principles. Bet on Patrick Mahomes as an underdog. The Chiefs have won each of their last seven games as underdogs. And the 49ers have been one of the most overrated teams at home dating back to last season. Take the Chiefs off the bye. Andy Reid, with extra time to prepare, is the exact spot to back Kansas City.
Every game the 49ers have lost this season has been within six points. 10/10 I will bet on Mahomes in a close game.
Props:
JuJu Smith-Schuster was the top target, hauling in seven receptions on eight targets (23% Target share) for 130 yards, including a long catch of 50 yards. Per Next Gen Stats, JuJu added 83 yards after the catch (+16 YAC over expected), the highest mark by a Chiefs receiver this season.
Smith-Schuster's massive game will boost his receiving lines. But I'd expect Xavier Worthy's role to increase in full post-bye week fashion, so I would be hesitant to go overboard for Smith-Schuster even after the big Monday night game in Week 5. Worthy ran more routes (32 vs 28) than Smith-Schuster. Justin Watson ran more routes than Smith-Schuster as well (29). Smith-Schuster also picked up a hamstring injury this week. It’s not good for a player who has struggled to produce while banged up.
Worthy was targeted six times (17% Target share) in Week 5, catching three passes for 25 yards with a rushing touchdown. The last six most comparable WRs to Worthy have gone OVER their receiving yards prop against the 49ers. The 49ers defense has allowed 278 deep passing yards this season, the 6th-most in the NFL. They also rank eighth-worst in EPA/target on passes of 20-plus air yards this season.
Brandon Aiyuk has been held under 50 receiving yards in five of six games this season. And more tight coverage is coming his way against this KC's man-heavy defense. Brock Purdy has thrown into a tight window (less than 1 yard of separation) on a league-high 23.2% of his total attempts this season.
Purdy has thrown 5 of his 15 total tight window completions to Jauan Jennings, each occurring between Weeks 2-4 this season. The Chiefs defense has forced a tight window on 19.0% of passes this season, the 4th-highest rate in the NFL.
If you recall, back in the Super Bowl, separation was a big issue for Deebo Samuel in this matchup. He was targeted 11 times but finished with just three catches for 33 yards.
Samuel has been held under 45 receiving yards and averaged four receptions the last two times he has faced Kansas City. Aiyuk has averaged nearly nine targets and 66 receiving yards per game in his last two matchups against the Chiefs. Samuel has fewer than four receptions in three straight games and in six of his last 10 contests.
If I had to make an educated guess on which of these 49ers WRs has the “big” game against KC, I’d envision it would be Aiyuk and not Samuel.
George Kittle has been targeted on 31.4% of his 35 routes run inside the red zone this season, both of which lead all tight ends this season (min. 15 such routes). Kittle has caught 10 of his 11 red zone targets for 65 yards and five touchdowns, including three receptions for 24 yards and two touchdowns on four tight window targets. George Kittle has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last four appearances.
My Picks: