6 Super Bowl Betting Trends to Know: 49ers vs. Chiefs (2024)

by John Supowitz |
Feb 02, 2024

Super Bowl 58 is set as a rematch of Super Bowl 54 with the Kansas City Chiefs versus the San Francisco 49ers. These are two of the best in their respective conferences, and anything can happen when they meet on the gridiron! But looking at the trends in previous games is informative and could help you in your decisions on what bets to make.

Let’s look at some key betting trends heading into this game.

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Important Super Bowl 58 Betting Trends

Patrick Mahomes Has Thrived As An Underdog

The Chiefs have opened as an underdog in the Super Bowl betting, but this is the same thing they faced last year. The Chiefs opened at +1.5 against the Eagles, and then you know what happened.

Mahomes had never been an underdog in any playoff game until Super Bowl 57, and now that's been the case in three of his last four games, culminating in Super Bowl 58. He's won the last two, and his 14-3 record in the playoffs is the best for a quarterback in their first six seasons.

Experience Matters

Mahomes is in Super Bowl No.4, while Brock Purdy is about to play in his first.

The lead-up to this game is on a whole other level, between the two-week layoff and the media coverage. Knowing what to expect has helped the veterans; in the previous 35 times when it has been an experienced quarterback against a first-timer, the experienced QB has won 20 of those matchups.

Bet On The Dogs

The underdogs have thrived under these circumstances. Recently, underdogs are 12-4 against the spread when given five points or fewer, including nine of the last 11.

Mahomes has proven to come up on top recently as a playoff underdog, but he's also 19-6-1 ATS all-time in that same situation.

The Better Seed Is Bad Luck

The 49ers were able to get the top seed in the NFC, while the Chiefs were No. 3 in the AFC.

There might be some bad luck attached to having the better team; the higher-seeded team is only 2-15-2 against the spread in the last 26 Super Bowls (excluding games where both teams came in as the same seed).

The Better Offense Doesn't Always Prevail

The term "defense wins championships" is popular, and sometimes that holds true. But in the Super Bowl, it should be "the worst offense wins championships."

You would believe the Chiefs would have the better offensive numbers, but that isn't the case; they were 15th in points per game this year, while the 49ers were third.

In the last 20 games, the better offense is only 7-12-1 against the spread.

The Roof Matters

The Super Bowl is always played either indoors or in a warm climate, but even that could sway certain totals.

If you want to see some points, you better hope there's a roof; in the last eight indoor Super Bowls, the over is 5-3, including two games that went over 50 points.

Allegiant Stadium has a roof. This game currently has an over/under of 47, so maybe the over might be a good one to bet for now.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

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