7 Prop Bet Odds & Picks for UFC 276 (2022)

by BettingPros Staff |
Jul 01, 2022

Letâ€™s take a look at the top prop bet odds and picks for UFC 276.

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Sean Strickland (25-3-0) vs. Alex Pereira (5-1-0)

One word came to mind when I started to break down this fight between a UFC veteran (Strickland) and a relative newcomer (Pereira); violence.

Standing at 6-foot-4, Pereira came over to the UFC in November of last year, since picking up two victories, his most recent decision win over Bruno Silva in March. Before that, he was a professional kickboxer who amassed a record of 33-7, with 23 bouts going by way of KO. Famously, he knocked out current middleweight champ and UFC 276 headliner Adesanua during his kickboxing stint. Since turning professional in MMA (2015), Pereira has knocked four of his past five opponents inside the second round.

Strickland has more vetted experience inside the UFC, but heâ€™s knocked out just one opponent since 2019, as his power has largely faded. With both fighters having a propensity to strike, I like this one to finish by way of KO/TKO.

Bet: KO/TKO/DQ (-150)

Alexander Volkanovski (24-1-0) vs. Max Holloway (23-6-0)

Having fought twice already for the same belt theyâ€™ll be fighting for on Saturday night, Volkanovski and Holloway have 10 rounds vs. each other in the bank to draw on when the going gets tough. While the first fight was a clear decision win for Volkanovski, the second was a split decision, and while Holloway no doubt lost the fight, he was much improved against the relentless Volkanovski.

For Hollowayâ€™s case, before those two battles in late 2019 and early 2020, Holloway had KO/TKOâ€™d four straight opponents in 2016-2018 and comes into this fight as rested as heâ€™s been in potentially his entire career. Regarding the fight metrics, Holloway beats Volkanovski in significant striking volume, landing 7.38 per 15 minutes in the octagon (vs. 6.63).

While both have the grappling pedigree to compete with the best in the division, I expect this fight to turn into a striking clinic early, with neither fighter interested in this being yet another decision. I have this one closer to even than the oddsmakers as far as head to head, but either way, I like this fight to go by way of the fists.

Bet: KO/TKO/DQ (+225)

Jim Miller (34-16-0) vs. Donald Cerrone (36-16-0)

When these two legends of the fight game step into the octagon on Saturday night, theyâ€™ll be doing so with a combined 102 professional fights. In what may be both of their last opportunity on a pay-per-view card, father time has caught up with both, but no one more than â€œCowboyâ€ Cerrone.

In fact, you have to go all the way back to May 2019 (seven fights ago) for the last time Cowboy found victory, a decision win vs. Al Laquinta. Of his six losses since, four have gone by way of KO/TKO, with three coming in the very first round.

That aligns poorly with Millerâ€™s recent run, knocking out two straight opponents in the second round, coming into Saturday with a 50% striking accuracy. Lastly, after battling one injury after another and having some bad luck with opponents, itâ€™s been over 400 days since Cowboy last fought, making ring rust a factor as well.

While both fighters are on their way out, I think Miller still has some slugfest ahead of him and see this one ending inside the distance with Millerâ€™s hand raised in the end.

Bet: Jim Miller To Win By KO/TKO/DQ (+300)

We will be looking to start this night off with a bang as two long-time UFC veterans are set to square off in this welterweight bout between Jim Miller and Donald Cerrone. This fight may be one of our last chances to fade Cerrone as he has one foot out of the door at this point in his career.

Cerrone has now lost five of his last six fights, with the one non-loss being a majority-draw that got overturned to a no-contest after Niko Price got suspended by the Nevada State Athletic Commission for a positive drug test (marijuana, which is legal in Nevada but against the athletic commissionâ€™s laws). While the first three of those five losses were expected as he went against Ferguson/Gaethje/McGregor, it is the last two losses that should be a cause for concern for Cerroneâ€™s backers.

In May of 2020, Cerrone lost to Anthony Pettis when Pettis was on the verge of retirement and had lost three of his last four fights prior (Pettis now fights in the PFL). A year later, Cerrone took on Alex Morono and got knocked out in the first round by a guy who had only one knockout in his 12-fight UFC career prior to that bout.

Of Cerroneâ€™s last four losses, three have been via a first-round knockout. Meanwhile, veteran Jim Miller remains in good form as he has won each of his last two fights via knockout.

Bet: Jim Miller to Win via KO/TKO in Round 1 (+600)

Israel Adesanya (22-1-0) vs. Jared Cannonier (15-5-0)

While Cannonier would be wise to take this one to the ground, holding slight edges in submission and takedowns, this will turn into a striking clinic early and often. Unfortunately for the challenger, Adesanya is one of the best in the world at maintaining distance, and his size advantage in this fight will make that relatively easier than usual.

Despite being successfully defending his middleweight belt five times thus far since winning it in late 2019, only twice has Adesanya done it inside the distance. Additionally, since joining the UFC in 2015, Cannonier has lost inside the distance just two times, with both coming in the very first round and his last coming in 2018.

If Cannonier can escape the first, which I expect him to do given his caliber, I like for this fight to drag on into the later rounds and for Izzy to get the decision win.

Bet: Israel Adesanya To Win By Decision (+120)

Uriah Hall vs. Andre Muniz

Immediately following the Miller/Cerrone fight, we have a middleweight bout between Uriah Hall and Andre Muniz. Opening as a large betting favorite, Muniz will look to remain perfect in the UFC and grab his seventh straight win (two of those prior six victories were part of the DWCS).

We have a clash of styles in this contest as Muniz will look to bring this to the mat while Hall will want to keep this on the feet. While I expect Muniz to win this fight, he may have difficulties finishing Hall while wrestling.

We saw this exact same scenario play out in Hallâ€™s last fight against Sean Strickland. While Strickland went four-of-six on takedown attempts, he was unable to finish Hall and won the fight via unanimous decision.

That Hall/Strickland was a five-round scrap as well, while this fight will be just three rounds. Hall is tough as nails and has not been finished in five straight fights.

This is by far Munizâ€™s biggest test of his career, but he should be ready for it and I believe it will be via decision as he should just dominate the fight on the mat.

Bet: Andre Muniz via Decision (+600)

Brad Riddell vs. Jalin Turner

In the final fight of the prelims, we have a lightweight bout between Brad Riddell and Jalin Turner. This should be a fascinating fight as Riddell will most likely have to bring this scrap to the mat as he is giving up eight inches in height and six inches in reach to Jalin Turner.

The problem for Riddell is that if he does this, Turner may be able to easily counter and beat him via submission. We have seen this play out in two of Turnerâ€™s last three fights as he won via rear naked choke against Uros Medic and Brok Weaver.

I do not really see an alleyway for Riddell to win this fight unless it is on the ground, which gives us tremendous value in backing Turner on the mat. If the fight is fought on the ground for the majority of the scrap, this +700 prop will be just as live as it was for Turnerâ€™s last two fights.

Bet: Jalin Turner via Submission (+700)