ACC Conference Win Totals Betting Picks (2021)
The ACC has long been dominated by Clemson, Florida State, and Virginia Tech. Of the last 30 ACC football champions, 27 have come from these three schools.
Recently, the conference has been Clemsonâs to lose. The Tigers have won the last six ACC titles and, even with Trevor Lawrence having departed for the pros, they should have little problem making it seven in a row in 2021. That said, the conference as a whole is on the rise, and thereâs plenty of value in the market that has yet to be exploited. With this in mind, here are my picks for the ACCâs 2021 win totals.
Check out our consensus futures odds for teams to win the ACC >>
Boston College Eagles
Over 7 wins: -140
Under 7 wins: +110
For a team in just their second year under a new head coach, with many holes to fill on an already suspect defense, -140 is a really steep price to pay for over seven wins.
Jeff Hafley was impressive in his first year at the helm at Boston College, and his more up-tempo offense is way more in line with how ACC football is played. The offense has a chance to take a step forward again this year as well in Phil Jurkovicâs second year under center after transferring from Notre Dame.
The Eagles havenât won more than seven games since 2009, and I still think theyâre a year away from getting Hafleyâs recruits into the program and really making some noise in the ACC. Boston College allowed more than six yards per play in 2020, which isnât close to good enough to slow down even the weakest of ACC offenses. Theyâve also lost three top defensive players, putting an improvement on that side of the ball in peril.
Boston Collegeâs offensive line is one of the better units in the conference, but theyâll need to replace Hunter Long in the passing game, and I think thatâs a feat thatâs harder than it looks on the surface.
PICK: Under 7 (+110)
CONFIDENCE LEVEL: Medium
Clemson Tigers
Over 11.5 wins: +110
Under 11.5 wins: -140
I understand that the Tigers will be breaking in a new quarterback in the post-Lawrence era, but D.J. Uiagalelei is the real deal. He also gained some valuable experience when Lawrence missed time with COVID, including a start in South Bend against the Fighting Irish.
Thereâs no reason to doubt Dabo Swinney now. Aside from last year when his star quarterback missed time and everyone had to deal with pandemic protocols, Clemson hasnât finished with fewer than 11 wins since 2014. Thatâs the last time they werenât conference champions.
Theyâve got a date with Georgia in Week 1. While most are on the Bulldogs to pull the upset, Iâm not one of those people. The Tigers will just have to run the table the rest of the way, which hasnât proven to be all that difficult for Swinney and company. Clemson has just three conference losses in the last six seasons; one came to Notre Dame, which is no longer part of the ACC.
Plus money on Clemsonâs win total? Yes, please.
PICK: Over 11.5 (+110)
CONFIDENCE LEVEL: High
Duke Blue Devils
Over 3.5 wins: -125
Under 3.5 wins: +100
From 2012-18, Duke had a surprisingly nice run with six bowl appearances. However, the past two seasons have been forgettable, leading coach David Cutcliffe to shake up his staff. After posting just seven wins in 2019-20, the Blue Devils have another mountain to climb in 2021.
The identity of the starting quarterback is still in question, though Chase Brice, a transfer from Appalachian State, is the leader in the clubhouse. While most of Dukeâs 2020 offensive line and skill position players are returning, the entire offense will be under new direction with Jeff Faris calling plays.
The Blue Devils should be double-digit underdogs in most, if not all of their ACC games. Their defense allowed 38.1 points per game last year, and with how fast ACC offenses play, we could be in for some seriously high scoring games when Duke is on the field.
The schedule offers two cupcakes in Kansas and North Carolina A&T. Otherwise, itâs tough to find a confident win.
PICK: Under 3.5 (+100)
CONFIDENCE LEVEL: Low
Florida State Seminoles
Over 5.5 wins: -135
Under 5.5 wins: +105
I canât believe Iâm backing the Seminoles here, given how much theyâve fallen off the map in recent years, but I really like Mike Norvell as a head coach, and I think he did a great job in the transfer portal.
Itâs tough to determine how effective McKenzie Milton will be coming off his gruesome leg injury while at UCF, but if heâs close to his old self, heâll inject life into the Florida State program. I truly believe itâs Norvellâs goal to get this program back to a bowl game, and a schedule featuring four very winnable games should help him accomplish that goal. Beyond that, the Seminoles just need to steal two toss-up games, and I believe their raw talent will push Florida State over the hump.
Chalk up Jacksonville State, Syracuse, and UMass as wins. Then all the Seminoles need is to go 3-2 against Wake Forest, Boston College, North Carolina State, Louisville, and Miami.
PICK: Over 5.5 (-135)
CONFIDENCE LEVEL: Low
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Over 5 wins: -110
Under 5 wins: -110
Georgia Tech is entering year three of the post-triple option era. For normal programs, three years under a new coach with his recruits and staff in place is enough time to start winning some games. However, when youâre transitioning from the triple option, the improvement is going to take longer.
The Yellow Jackets have a brutal back-to-back against North Carolina and Clemson in their third and fourth games, and they finish the year against Notre Dame and Georgia. Those are four nearly guaranteed losses in my book, and that opposition will make it really tough for Georgia Tech to put together a hot streak. Facing Miami and Virginia on the road is another disadvantage.
Georgia Tech is still a year away, so Iâll roll with the under here.
PICK: Under 5 wins (-110)
CONFIDENCE LEVEL: High
Louisville Cardinals
Over 7 wins: +120
Under 7 wins: -150
I donât understand this line at all. Despite being extremely heavily juiced to the under, the win total is still far too high. Iâm still very comfortable taking the under and laying a few extra cents. If this line was 6 or even 6.5, it would be a different story. For this over to have a chance, Louisville almost has to beat Ole Miss in Atlanta in Week 1, and I donât expect that to happen.
The Cardinals lost three key skill position contributors on offense including Tutu Atwell, and although their defense is improved from last yearâs version that allowed nearly four touchdowns per game, itâs not good enough to be considered a strength.
Many said the 2020 Cardinals were unlucky, but I just donât think theyâre equipped to win close games. A year ago four of Louisvilleâs seven losses came by a touchdown or less, and their turnover margin was a brutal minus-12. Thatâs not unlucky, thatâs sloppy football causing wins to slip away.
PICK: Under 7 (-150)
CONFIDENCE LEVEL: High
Miami Hurricanes
Over 9.5 wins: +110
Under 9.5 wins: -140
Off the bat, I see two losses on Miamiâs schedule: Alabama and North Carolina. So if all goes according to plan, Miami must run the table the rest of the way, and thatâs a big ask.
Pittsburgh, North Carolina State, Virginia Tech, and Florida State are all capable of taking down the Hurricanes, and at least one of them will. And what about the quarterback? DâEriq King says heâll be back for the opener, but even if he is, how long will it take him to bounce back from ACL surgery? I donât expect him to pick up where he left off; thereâs going to be some rust.
Miamiâs defense also underwhelmed under Manny Diaz. Heâll take over play-calling on that side of the ball, but itâs hard to predict improvement without seeing any fundamental changes to the scheme. Itâs tough to lay -140 on a season-long win total, but I canât pass on this.
PICK: Under 9.5 (-140)
CONFIDENCE LEVEL: High
North Carolina Tar Heels
Over 10 wins: +110
Under 10 wins: -140
UNC is a good football team, and quarterback Sam Howell has a very realistic shot of going number one overall in the 2022 NFL Draft. The Tar Heels also have the seventh-best odds to make the College Football Playoff, so the sports books recognize this teamâs strength and potential.
Realistically, I think this is a push, so Iâd rather take the plus-money side and hope Howell plays up to his potential Heisman level while coach Mack Brown pushes many of the right buttons. Itâs low confidence, but the Tar Heels have a pretty favorable schedule and a top-15 recruiting class. That should make up for losing some of their best playmakers on offense.
North Carolina couldâand probably shouldâstart the year 7-0. Theyâll be favored in every game. Then comes the big test against Notre Dame. When these teams played last year, the Irish let the Heels hang around for a half before pulling away in a 31-17 victory. Without Ian Book though, Notre Dame is a different team. I think North Carolina has a legitimate shot to upset the Irish in South Bend. But even without that win, their other tough matchupsâVirginia, Miami, North Carolina Stateâare in Chapel Hill.
PICK: Over 10 (-140)
CONFIDENCE LEVEL: Low
North Carolina State
Over 6 wins: -150
Under 6 wins: +120
Thereâs a lot to like about this NC State team, evident by the number of times Iâve plugged them as a âtough matchup.â The Wolfpack defense isnât anything special, but as Iâve mentioned a few times, points will be put up in this conference. Only Clemson has an elite defense. Everyone else will have to load up on the offensive side of the ball and try to win shootouts.
Expect big things from running back Zonovan Knight. Heâll allow NC State to control a ton of clockâespecially late in these shootoutsâand keep opposing offenses off the field. The schedule isnât easy; the Wolfpack have dates with Miami, North Carolina, and a non-conference tilt with Mississippi State. Itâs tough to rationalize a win for the Wolfpack against in-state rival UNC, but they can beat Miami, and they can certainly win the ACC-SEC showdown with Mississippi State.
The line of six wins at -150 is a bit strange. I would actually prefer to take the over 6.5 wins if you can find it. Itâll be closer to even money, and after winning eight games in 2020, I see no reason NC State canât replicate that total in 2021.
PICK: Over 6 (-150)
CONFIDENCE LEVEL: High
Pittsburgh Panthers
Over 7 wins: -125
Under 7 wins: +100
Pittsburgh has a very up and down schedule. They draw Clemson, Miami, and North Carolina, but also have a relatively easy non-conference schedule with games against Western Michigan, UMass, New Hampshire, and perhaps their most formidable non-ACC foe, Tennessee. Even if the Panthers drop all three of those tough ACC games, theyâve still got nine games on the schedule to find at least seven wins (for a push), and possibly eight (for a cashed ticket).
The Panthersâ defense was tremendous in 2020, and we should expect more of the same this fall. I mentioned that most ACC defenses are tough to count on, but Pittâs is an exception. The Panthers were 14th among Power 5 schools in expected points per pass allowed, so theyâre well equipped in the secondary to slow down some of these spread offenses and lethal passing attacks.
Theyâve also got fifth-year senior Kenny Pickett under center. Pickett hasnât been anything more than pedestrian, but his experience is valuable and to be honest, heâs got nowhere to go but up. I have the Panthers at 9-3, 8-4 at worst. So if thereâs a 7.5 out there at plus-money, Iâd consider it.
PICK: Over 7 (-125)
CONFIDENCE LEVEL: High
Syracuse Orange
Over 3.5 wins: +105
Under 3.5 wins: -130
The 2020 season was a brutal one for Syracuse. They finished 1-10 and were killed by injuries, opt-outs, and a really bad defense. Ten of the defensive starters will return, but is that a good thing? The Orange allowed more than 460 yards per game last year, and their 2021 schedule isnât giving them any breaks.
Syracuse will have to deal with Rutgers, a much improved bunch under Greg Schiano, Ohio, a MAC team that always plays their non-conference opponents tough, and Liberty, which features star quarterback Malik Willis. At least Syracuse should beat Albany.
Head coach Dino Babers is on the hot seat. While some see this as motivation for the Orange to overperform, if this team starts slowly as I expect, I can see Syracuse making a change at the helm before the end of the year. Tommy DeVito should start Week 1, but he wonât have a very strong complement of weapons. He and Syracuse certainly wonât have enough to find four wins.
PICK: Under 3.5 (-130)
CONFIDENCE LEVEL: Medium
Virginia Cavaliers
Over 6 wins: -130
Under 6 wins: +105
This is one of my lowest confidence bets in the ACC. This Cavaliers team is so difficult to figure out. Working against them is their schedule. The Cavs travel to Miami, North Carolina, and Pittsburgh in conference, and to BYU and Notre Dame in non-conference play. I wouldnât be shocked if they dropped all those games, but I also wouldnât be shocked if they found a way to win a couple of them.
Working in Virginiaâs favor is the culture Bronco Mendenhall has created. Itâs hard to imagine this team having a losing record, especially coming off their 5-5 finish in the pandemic-altered 2020 season, which was their first without Bryce Perkins. His replacement, Brennan Armstrong, showed a ton of promise and should be able to will Virginia to a few wins in toss-up games.
The Cavs should beat William & Mary, Illinois, Duke, and Georgia Tech for four of the seven wins we need. Even if they finish 6-6, a push isnât the worst outcome in the world.
PICK: Over 6 (-130)
CONFIDENCE LEVEL: Low
Virginia Tech Hokies
Over 7 wins: +105
Under 7 wins: -134
The Hokies arenât a threat to win the conference, but I still expect a winning record in Blacksburg. Their receiving core, one of the strongest in the ACC, features tight end James Mitchell. Heâs a matchup nightmare who has a future playing on Sundays. Quarterback Braxton Burmeister should be a lot more comfortable this fall than he was during the COVID-affected 2020 season.
Although Virginia Tech has been under .500 in two of the last three seasons (including a 5-6 mark in â20), the Hokies havenât had back-to-back losing years since 1991-92. This is a program that constantly retools. Although the offensive line lost a few key pieces, the dynamic weapons should help Virginia Tech get the ball out quick and move it down the field.
The schedule isnât all that bad. The Hokies play Notre Dame and West Virginia, but Middle Tennessee State and Richmond are their other two non-conference opponents. If they can split those games, winning eight shouldnât be an issue. Justin Fuente is in his fourth year as head coach, and the time is now to bring this program back to glory.
PICK: Over 7 (+105)
CONFIDENCE LEVEL: Medium
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Over 6.5 wins: -135
Under 6.5 wins: +105
Wake Forest has been a pest the last few years in the ACC, and I expect more of the same in 2021. Their schedule actually has a bunch of winnable games, even for a team that usually hovers around the lower-middle part of the standings. Old Dominion, Norfolk State, and Army are the Deaconsâ out-of-conference opponents. If they go 2-1 in those games, seven wins is highly possible. I wouldnât be surprised to see them take all three.
Their key toss-up gamesâFlorida State, Louisville, and North Carolina Stateâare all at home. Sam Hartman is a legitimate quarterback and he has a deep receiving corps. Hartmanâs connection with Jaquarii Robinson is one that defenses should fear. And while the Deacons allowed nearly five touchdowns per game in 2020, their secondary has the ability to make big plays and change momentum, even in high-scoring games.
PICK: Over 6.5 (-135)
CONFIDENCE LEVEL: Low
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