Arizona vs. Duke 2025 NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Predictions
After a relatively low-key first weekend of March Madness hoops, we are back in action tonight as the Sweet 16 kicks off. Despite no major Cinderellas becoming the tournament darlings and only one double-digit seed making it to the second weekend, we have a plethora of fantastic matchups to look forward to.
These No. 1 seeds are the best grouping of top seeds in the history of KenPom, but it's no guarantee they will all make it to San Antonio. We have four games tonight, and today is my favorite option of the two Sweet Sixteen days. I've had Maryland-Florida circled since the bracket dropped. Here are all of my top leans and best bets for Thursday’s Sweet 16. Below we dive into Arizona vs. Duke.
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NCAA Tournament Best Sweet 16 Bets: Arizona vs. Duke
No. 4 Arizona Wildcats vs. No. 1 Duke Blue Devils
Location: Prudential Center – Newark, NJ
Line: Duke -9.5 | Total: 153.5
We've already seen this one before with the Blue Devils having already defeated Arizona earlier this season by 14 points in a game that exposed significant Wildcat vulnerabilities. Arizona’s potential path to victory here rests heavily on the unpredictable shooting performance of Caleb Love, who would need to replicate his recent Oregon game, going 5-7 from deep. Duke’s ability to generate quick scoring runs and exceptional rim defense make them a formidable opponent, with Jon Scheyer's squad consistently demonstrating they can dismantle the best defensive schemes. I don't expect Tyrese Proctor to go 7-8 from three, and Duke to shoot 54%, but they still boast the best offense in the game. While Arizona boasts talent and has transformed their frontcourt since the first matchup, they face an uphill battle against a Duke team that appears to be hitting its stride at the perfect moment in the tournament. I would bet alts here with Arizona's dependence on Love in a matchup against Duke. Obviously, there's a lot on the line, and I view this game as a one-possession battle where Arizona has a lucky shooting night, or Duke wins by 20, as they've done. No official play here but I'm expecting the latter.
Lean: Duke -9.5 (-108 at FanDuel Sportsbook)