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Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Guide (PGA)

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Another University of California product was triumphant on the PGA Tour, as Collin Morikawa (40/1) took home his second career title at the WGC-Workday Championship. Morikawa was lights out all week in Florida, finishing the week at 18-under-par and winning by three strokes. His approach play was once again phenomenal, gaining a ridiculous 9.56 strokes on the field. It was a Sunday to remember, as many of the golfers showed their support for Tiger Woods by wearing black and red on the final day of the event.

The Florida swing continues as the Tour will now head to Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The event falls in between a WGC and the Players Championship next week, so the quality of the 126 man field takes a minor hit. Nonetheless, there is some high-end talent teeing it up this week in the Sunshine State.

A winner of the event in 2018, Rory McIlroy (+850) is the betting favorite heading into the week. A red-hot Viktor Hovland (+1200), Bryson Dechambeau (+1300), and reigning champion Tyrrell Hatton (+1700) are the next three on the board. It is interesting to note that this event has been won by international players in its last five appearances.

Previous Winners

  • 2020: Tyrrell Hatton (-5)
  • 2019: Francesco Molinari (-12)
  • 2018: Rory McIlroy (-18)
  • 2017: Marc Leishman (-11)
  • 2016: Jason Day (-17)

Course Preview

While we can expect plenty of birdies this week, Bay Hill Golf Club is no easy test. A monster of a course, Bay Hill measures 7,419 yards long. It is a par 72 and will feature Bermuda greens once again. There are plenty of water hazards, sand traps, and doglegs that make this track especially challenging. Golfers will be forced to use less than driver off the tee and plot their way around the course. A good majority of approach shots this week will be outside of 200 yards, so golfers will need to dialed-in with their irons.

Relevant Betting Stats

  • Strokes Gained: Approach (>200 yards)
  • Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking
  • Bogey Avoidance
  • Putting on Bermuda greens

Outright Betting Picks

Viktor Hovland (+1200 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
It’s been some kind of run for the 23-year-old Norweigan. In his last five events, Hovland has a win, two T2s, and a T5. He was once again in the mix at the WGC-Workday Championship last week. Hovland finished second in both strokes gained: approach and strokes gained: off-the-tee, en-route to his T2 finish. If not for a couple of big blowup holes, the tournament could’ve been his.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (+2900 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Fitzpatrick has been vocal about his love for Bay Hill, and the results speak for themselves here. He finished second here in 2019 and followed it up with a T9 finish last year. With conditions expected to be cool and windy on the weekend, this plays right into his strengths. The Englishman is a brilliant player in windy conditions and has no problem grinding out pars to win.

Mid-Tier Betting Picks

Tommy Fleetwood (+4400 on FanDuel Sportsbook) 
This is simply too big of a number for a player of Fleetwood’s calibre in a weaker field tournament. The Englishman isn’t playing his best of late, but did have two top-20s on the European Tour in January and placed T3 at this event in 2019. He is a great putter on Bermuda and has a propensity of playing well in Florida, as his best finish in 2020 came at the Honda Classic (T3).

Kevin Na (+5500 on FanDuel Sportsbook)   
Amongst all the golfers in this mid-tier range, Na has one of the highest winning equity. He is already a five-time winner on the PGA Tour at the age of 37. The Sony Open champion in January is coming off a solid T11 showing at the WGC-Workday Championship. He has a very solid course history at Bay Hill with high finishes of T2, T4, and T6.

Other Betting Picks

Francesco Molinari – Top-5 Finish (+600 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
The 2019 champion of this event comes in with some stellar form. In his last four outings, Molinari has three top-10 outings and looks like the elite player that took the golf world by storm in 2018. He is close to breaking out for his fourth career win, and he has fond memories of Bay Hill to boot.

Emiliano Grillo Top-10 Finish (+750 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
With plenty of water and play and big numbers out there, accuracy both off the tee and with approaches are a must. Grillo checks both boxes. In 2020, Grillo ranked 13th in approach and 25th in driving accuracy. It’s no surprise to see he has had success at Bay Hill. Grillo had a T7 here in 2017.

Event Plays

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Nic Turner is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Nic, check out his archive and follow him @sportzbandit.