Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers Odds & Game Pick
The Falcons’ season is all but over, but they can still play spoiler for their division rivals. Last week they delivered a serious blow to the Saints’ chances at the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC, and this week they could critically impact the Panthers’ postseason hopes.
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Details
- Opening Lines: FanDuel had the odds open as Panther -7; O/U 51.5. The total has dropped two points, while the spread has shifted 1.5 points toward Atlanta.
- Current Line: Panthers -5.5
- O/U: 49.5
- Location: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
- Start Time: 1:00 pm ET
- Television: FOX
- Last Meeting: December 23, 2018 – The Falcons defeated the Panthers 24-10 in Carolina.
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Overview
The Falcons dominated the Saints last week in the biggest shocker of the season thus far. The defense had been allowing 31.3 points per game, third-worst in the league, but gave up just nine to Drew Brees and the high-powered Saints’ offense. Is this a turning point for the Falcons, or were they simply amped up coming off the bye for their biggest game of the season?
Matt Ryan and the offense continued to be impressive, as they put up 26 points against a Saints’ defense that was allowing less than three touchdowns per game. The passing attack is now second in the league in yards per game behind only the Kansas City Chiefs. They will be tested this week, though, as the Panthers come into the game with an NFL-best 36 sacks this season.
The Falcons should look to run the ball this week, despite the status of Devonta Freeman being unknown and their rushing attack ranking fourth-worst in the NFL. The Panthers’ rush defense is also the fourth-worst in the NFL, allowing 136.7 yards per game. It’s a strange situation where weakness is facing off against weakness and strength against strength, as the Panthers’ pass defense is 11th best in the league.
On the offensive side of the ball for the Panthers, Christian McCaffrey should be a matchup nightmare for the Falcons as he seems to get yards no matter who he is playing. He should be covered by linebackers all day, which could lead to a lot of short passes from Kyle Allen and a lot of room to run for McCaffrey. This will protect Allen from the Falcons’ pass rush which recorded six sacks against Brees last week.
Trends
- The Falcons are 3-6 ATS this season.
- The Panthers are 5-4 ATS this season.
- The Falcons are 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven games vs Carolina.
- The Panthers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games.
- The Falcons are 1-5 ATS in their last six games on the road.
- The total has gone under in six of Atlanta’s last nine games.
- The total has gone over in eight of Carolina’s last 11 home games.
- The total has gone over in four of Carolina’s last five games.
Prop Bet
First Half Carolina -3
Last week, I took the Saints’ first-half spread and wasn’t even close, but I’m assuming that was a fluke and things go back to normal this week. The Panthers aren’t a team that is going to blow you away, but the Falcons start slow nearly every week. Expect a return to normalcy and a slow start for the Falcons who will be dealing with a big-win hangover.
Bottom Line
The Panthers have burned a lot of sharps this year with their weak performances against the Packers and the 49ers, but Carolina is 3-1 ATS when favored, with their only loss coming against Tampa Bay in Week 2. The Falcons played incredible football last week in their upset over the Saints, but I don’t think they’re turning a corner. Rather, they were essentially playing in their Super Bowl coming off the bye. I don’t see how the Falcons’ defense shuts down Christian McCaffrey. This is a dead number and one that feels like a big overreaction to Atlanta’s win last week.
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Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers (+4)
Philip Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Philip, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.