Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints Odds and Game Pick (2020)
The Atlanta Falcons and the New Orleans Saints will play their first of two matchups over a three-week span Sunday at Mercedes Benz Superdome in New Orleans. Chances are, the Saints will play both games against the Falcons without quarterback Drew Brees.
Brees’ absence is the big storyline heading into this Week 11 tilt between NFC South foes. With the future Hall of Famer sidelined with broken ribs and a punctured lung, Jameis Winston will assume the starting duties against a team he’s awfully familiar with.
Will the Saints miss a beat without their legendary QB? Most importantly, can they cover as 5-point favorites? Let’s breakdown this divisional showdown.
Compare odds from all major sportsbooks for the Saints vs. Falcons >>
Details
- Opening Line: Saints -4.5
- Last meeting: November 18, 2019, Saints 26-18
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ATL
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+4
-110
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o51.5
-110
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+170
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| VIEW PICKS |
NO
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-4
-110
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u51.5
-110
|
-200
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View consensus picks and notes from top betting experts for the Saints vs. Falcons >>
Overview
The biggest question entering this game will be what the Saints offense looks like with Winston. We can’t really glean much from Winston’s relief appearance after Brees left last week’s game. He completed 6-of-10 passes for 63 yards and took two sacks in a game the Saints pretty much already had won.
The truth is, Winston and Brees are polar opposites as quarterbacks. Brees is the far more conservative thrower this late in his career. He rarely pushes the ball downfield, but he is deadly accurate on short and intermediate throws. The Saints haven’t been overly explosive with Brees, but they’re efficient and consistent.
Winston is more of a wild card. He certainly can sling it and might open up more opportunities to for explosive plays. But when things go bad for Winston, he can lose the game with wild throws and mind-boggling turnovers. Let’s not forget, Winston threw 30 interceptions a season ago.
Defensively, the Saints appear to be coming into their own. They’ve held the Buccaneers and 49ers to 194 and 281 total yards in their last two games, respectively. However, top cornerback Marshon Lattimore’s status is questionable after he left with an oblique injury. Lattimore was limited in practice Wednesday, but his status will be worth monitoring.
If not for Todd Gurley accidentally scoring in Week 7, the Falcons would be 4-0 since firing Dan Quinn and putting Raheem Morris in charge.
The biggest improvement the Falcons have made has been on the defensive side of the ball after Morris dumped Quinn’s conservative zone coverage schemes. Atlanta’s defense certainly isn’t elite, but it hasn’t given up more than 27 points in any of its last five games. That’s progress considering Atlanta had surrendered at least 30 points in their first four games of 2020.
Atlanta could also get star receiver Calvin Ridley back in the lineup. Ridley resumed running after being held out of Atlanta’s Week 9 win over Denver with a foot sprain. Ridley’s presence will be especially important if Lattimore matches up with Julio Jones throughout the game.
Trends
- The Falcons are 37-36-1 ATS against the NFC South since 2008 (Matt Ryan’s first season).
- The Saints are 46-42 ATS in divisional games since 2006 (Sean Payton’s first season).
- Under Ryan, the Falcons are 9-6 ATS when coming off a bye.
Bottom Line
This spread feels a tad too high and presents some value on the road underdogs.
While Winston should allow New Orleans to be more aggressive in pushing the ball downfield, that strategy can also backfire. The Falcons and Saints have played some tight games as of late, and I expect the rejuvenated Falcons to keep this one close with the help of a Winston turnover or two.
The Pick: Falcons +5
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