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Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers Odds & Game Pick

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The San Francisco 49ers met the New Orleans Saints in a hugely important game this past weekend with the winner – the 49ers – getting the inside track to the No. 1 seed in the NFC Playoffs. Now, the 49ers have to make sure they don’t slip up after such an intense effort. This week, they’ll host the Atlanta Falcons, who are merely playing out the season. However, they haven’t quit as they’ve won three of their last five – including a win over the Saints. This should still be a very easy win for the 49ers as long as they stay focused here. They’re favored by double-digits, and the question here is if they are vulnerable to a hangover after that draining game in New Orleans.

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Details

  • Opening Line: San Francisco -12.5
  • Current Line: San Francisco -11
  • Over/Under: 46.5
  • Location: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, California
  • Start Time: 4:25 PM ET
  • Last Meeting: Falcons 41 vs. 49ers 13

View consensus picks from 100+ experts for Falcons at 49ers >>

Overview

The Falcons beat the Saints in New Orleans, just as the 49ers did, but that win by Atlanta felt like a mirage. The Falcons won that game 26-9 in early November and since then, their only two wins have come against the Carolina Panthers, who are in the middle of a nosedive. The Falcons won those two games by an average of 23 points, which is impressive, but given how the Panthers have cratered after a good start to their season, it is hard to assign too much meaning or value to the Falcons’ improved play. Quarterback Matt Ryan found rookie receiver Olamide Zaccheus for a 93-yard touchdown last week against Carolina, which is impressive. However, will the Falcons be able to find that same kind of production against a San Francisco defense which ranks third in the NFL in points allowed per game (17.6), second in third-down conversions allowed (29 percent), and second in yards allowed per game (267)?

The Falcons’ defense will also have its hands full against a San Francisco offense which is earning a lot of trust. The 49ers’ two losses this year came to Seattle on a night when George Kittle was out with an injury and to the Baltimore Ravens in a rainstorm. When the Niners played in the climate-controlled Superdome, their offense was fast, relentless, and good enough to score 48 points against a good defense. The Saints came into last weekend allowing an average of 20.7 points per game. That was just outside the top 10 in the NFL. After the Niners got through with New Orleans’ defense, the Saints fell all the way to 17th in the NFL with 22.8 points per game allowed.

Trends

  • Falcons are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Falcons are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
  • 49ers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
  • 49ers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
  • 49ers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

Bottom Line

While the 49ers have Richard Sherman, Weston Richburg and Dee Ford – all key players – out with injuries, their other players know how to step up. Kittle did against the Saints. So did backup center Ben Garland, who kept the offensive line cohesive. Jimmy Garoppolo is improving at quarterback and is gradually answering the doubters. The Niners just have too much for an Atlanta team which needs to prove it can play well against teams other than the Panthers.

Prediction: 49ers 34, Falcons 16

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Dave Golokhov is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Dave, check out his archive and follow him @davegolokhov.