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Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Odds & Game Pick

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The Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers arrive at the NFL regular-season finale with no hope of making the playoffs. The season has been a much bigger disappointment for the Falcons, whose offense was supposed to dominate the NFC. Nevertheless, Atlanta has played well over the past month to very probably save coach Dan Quinn’s job for 2020. The Buccaneers are finishing their first season under coach Bruce Arians, unsure of what to make of quarterback Jameis Winston, whose tendencies under the new coaching staff have not been any different from his habits under the previous coach Dirk Koetter.

While both teams started the season poorly, both have won five of their last seven games and are hoping to carry some momentum into the offseason. The game opened as a pick, so this game is rated as essentially a coin flip. Which way will this NFC South game go?

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Details

  • Opening Line: PICK
  • Current Line: Tampa Bay -1
  • Over/Under: 48
  • Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
  • Start Time: 1:00 PM ET
  • Last Meeting: Falcons 22 vs. Buccaneers 35

View consensus picks from 100+ experts for the Falcons at Buccaneers >>

Overview

The Falcons were 1-7 midway through the 16-game season, but they have gone 5-2 in their last seven games to create hopes that they can figure things out next season and return to the playoffs after missing the postseason in each of the past two seasons. The defense has roared to life, and Devonta Freeman has played like the running back the Falcons need in order to become a high-level ballclub.

Starting with the defense, they’ve allowed 18.1 points per game over their last seven after giving up 31.3 over their first eight. As for Freeman, he crossed the 100-yard mark (for total yards) last week, which was the first time he’s done that since Week 8.

Atlanta decisively beat the Jacksonville Jaguars this past weekend in a game that was never close. This team is playing hard for Dan Quinn and – in Week 17 when a number of teams do decide to pack it in for the season – figure to play hard. That alone should boost their chances.

The Buccaneers, like the Falcons, have also improved as the season has moved along. Tampa Bay was 2-6 halfway through the season, only one game better than Atlanta’s 1-7 mark. The Bucs have similarly gone 5-2 in the second half of the season. They had won four games in a row before losing to Houston this past Saturday. The big story in Tampa is that Jameis Winston can’t shake his bad habits. He can throw for a ton of touchdowns, but he also throws a lot of interceptions. Winston has a chance to finish this 2019 NFL season with 30 touchdown passes and 30 interceptions while also leading the league in passing yards, which would be unprecedented in NFL history. He threw four interceptions this past weekend against Houston, and a fifth interception was dropped by the Texans. You never know what’s going to happen when Winston takes the field.

Trends

  • Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in December.
  • Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
  • Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
  • Buccaneers are 3-0-2 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
  • Buccaneers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

Bottom Line

The Bucs have receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin out due to injuries, which is a big issue. The Falcons are plainly the healthier team, certainly on the offensive side of the ball. Their defense has also played really well of late. With Winston gifting them at least a couple of picks, they should pull away for a victory.

Prediction: Falcons 27, Bucs 24

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Check out our other NFL Sports Betting Guides for Week 17

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (+3)
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (+13.5)
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (+12.5)
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (+6)
Washington at Dallas Cowboys (-12.5)
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (+3.5)
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-16.5)
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5)
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-1)
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (+1)
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5)
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-3.5)
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (+3)

Dave Golokhov is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Dave, check out his archive and follow him @davegolokhov.