Australian Open Men’s Round of 16 Match Odds and Best Bets
The first week of the 2021 Australian Open tennis tournament is nearly in the books. In seemingly the blink of an eye, the original field has been whittled down to just 16 competitors. There have been plenty of upsets, thrilling matches, intriguing storylines, and more in the first week of play Down Under. As we move ever closer to crowing the first Grand Slam winner of 2021, the stakes will only get higher. Let’s take a look at the match odds and a few bets to consider ahead of the Australian Open Men’s Round of 16.
All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
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Novak Djokovic (-215) vs. Milos Raonic (+170)
There’s a good deal of intrigue and, dare I say controversy, surrounding top-seeded Novak Djokovic coming into this match. After being pushed the distance in a five-set third-round win over Taylor Fritz, Djokovic announced that he had torn an abdominal muscle. The injury was clearly causing him discomfort in the match against Fritz. With that said, Djokovic’s injuries have a history of being perplexing to anyone other than the Joker himself. Will it even matter if he’s less than 100% for his fourth-round match against Milos Raonic? Djokovic has dominated the 11 previous head-to-head meetings between the two, dropping just three sets total in all of the matches combined.
The jury is still out on just how impacted Djokovic will be by the abdominal injury. Nonetheless, the current betting odds offer up substantial value on the hard-hitting Raonic. If the injury is as bad as Djokovic suggested after his third-round match, the value on Raonic becomes even more significant. I’m not willing to go overboard and call an outright upset on the moneyline, but I’ll back Raonic to force a prolonged match with +1.5 on the set spread.
Pick: Milos Raonic +1.5 Sets (-112 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Daniil Medvedev (-3335) vs. Mackenzie McDonald (+1400)
If the match odds are any indication, this fourth round matchup is expected to be pretty lopsided. Fourth-seeded Daniil Medvedev has looked impressive in his Australian Open run thus far. After dispatching his first two opponents in straight sets, the 25-year-old Russian gutted out a five-set win over Filip Krajinovic in the third round on Friday. His reward is a fourth-round contest against Mackenzie McDonald. Aside from a second-round upset of Borna Coric, McDonald’s road to this point hasn’t been overly challenging.
Given the lopsided expectations coming into this matchup, one of the best ways to take advantage is in the game totals market. With a minimum of 18 games necessary to ensure a three-set victory, the question becomes how many more we think McDonald is capable of forcing? For me, that’s not many. I’ll spot Medvedev 10 games by playing Under 28.5 and bank on him to close it out quickly.
Pick: Under 28.5 Total Games (+100 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
3-Leg Moneyline Parlay — Nadal, Tsitsipas, Rublev
The fourth round of this year’s men’s Australian Open seems to feature numerous players at one of two ends of the spectrum. You are likely to find either a highly seeded pre-tourney favorite or a total surprise. With so many large moneyline favorites on the board, it makes sense to combine a few that you are comfortable with into a parlay to have betting action with reduced odds. Second-seeded Rafael Nadal (-670), fifth-seeded Stefanos Tsitsipas (-380), and seventh-seeded Andrey Rublev (-1115) all require bettors to lay massive juice when played straight up. Parlayed together, we can bring those odds down to a much more reasonable -177.
Other Men’s Round of 16 Matches
- Felix Auger Aliassime (-186) vs. Aslan Karatsev (+148)
- Dominic Thiem (-345) vs. Grigor Dimitrov (+265)
- Dusan Lajovic (+850) vs. Alexander Zaverev (-1430)
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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeSports.