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Baltimore Ravens vs Kansas City Chiefs NFL Sports Betting Guide

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After an incredible first two weeks, Lamar Jackson will be put to the test when he travels to Arrowhead to take on Patrick Mahomes and the high-powered Chiefs’ offense. PointsBet opened with the Chiefs favored by 5.5. Is that an overreaction after Jackson’s first two weeks, or are the Ravens a team that can actually challenge the Chiefs on the road?

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DETAILS

  • Opening Lines: The Chiefs opened as 5.5 point favorites and the over/under opened at 48.5. The total number has since skyrocketed nearly a full touchdown, while spread action has caused the Chiefs to move to -6.5
  • Current Line: Chiefs -6.5
  • O/U: 54.5
  • Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
  • Start Time: 1:00 pm ET
  • Television: CBS
  • Last Meeting: December 9, 2018 – The Chiefs defeated the Ravens 27-24 at Arrowhead.

View consensus picks from 100+ experts for the Ravens at Chiefs >>

OVERVIEW

Lamar Jackson has put up video game-type numbers through the first two weeks of 2019, recording 596 yards passing, seven touchdowns, and no interceptions to go along with 126 rushing yards. Yes, it was against arguably two of the worst defenses in the NFL, but it’s not just any quarterback that can put up those types of numbers. Many are calling Jackson an early-season MVP candidate. Is it a huge overreaction, or are Jackson and the Ravens’ talented offense for real?

In Week 2, the Ravens’ offense wasn’t able to pull away from Kyler Murray and the Cardinals, winning by just six points, but the defense played particularly well especially in the fourth quarter where after a four-play 79-yard touchdown drive, they successfully shut down Arizona for the last 12 minutes of the game. Will they achieve the same success this week against the best offense in the NFL?

While everyone seems surprised by the early-season success of Jackson, no one is batting an eye at Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense. Even without Tyreek Hill last weekend in Oakland, the offense set records scoring four touchdowns in the second quarter. Mahomes threw for 276 yards in the quarter, the most since Drew Brees threw for 294 in 2008. However, the Ravens’ defense is considered by many to be one of the best in the NFL and Mahomes did struggle early against Oakland last Sunday, so don’t expect the same kind of astronomical numbers this week.

The Chiefs’ defense has also been much better this season, after relying heavily on Mahomes to win shootouts in 2018. They fell into a quick 10-0 hole against Oakland on Sunday, but then clamped down and were able to hold the Raiders to zero points for the rest of the game. They will certainly give up yards to Lamar Jackson and this offense, but the key for the defense will be to hold the Ravens to field goals, while their offense does what they’re supposed to do and puts touchdowns on the scoreboard.

TRENDS

  • The Ravens are 2-4 ATS in their last six games and 1-1 ATS on the season.
  • The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games and 2-0 ATS on the season.
  • The total has gone under in four of Baltimore’s last six games.
  • The total has gone over in seven of Kansas City’s last 10 games.
  • The Chiefs are 8-2 SU in their last 10 home games.
  • The Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.
  • The Chiefs are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games played in September.
  • The Ravens are 5-1 SU in their last six games played in September.

PROP BET

Chiefs Touchdowns over 3.5 (-103)
The Ravens’ defense is good, but it’s also untested so far this season. Four touchdowns seems to be the norm for the Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. I don’t necessarily think this game will go over, after all 55 points is an awful lot, but I do expect the Chiefs to win by at least seven points and to do so they’re going to have to put up at least 28. It’s their home opener. They’re going to want to put on a show.

BOTTOM LINE

I honestly can’t believe this line. I was expecting it to be eight or nine points with the Chiefs at home, but opening up at -5.5 feels like a huge overreaction to me. Lamar Jackson has been great, there is no denying that, but he also put up those numbers against two weak defensive units. The Chiefs’ defense isn’t great, but it should be good enough to stop the Ravens from being able to keep up with Mahomes, who will put up points against any defense no matter what. If you can get this under a touchdown, I think it’s a no-brainer. The Chiefs are proven, and the Ravens are everybody’s darlings because they beat up on two bad teams. But against Arizona, they didn’t look particularly great.

Pick: Chiefs -6.5 (+100)

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Philip Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Philip, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.