Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots Odds and Game Pick (2020)
The Baltimore Ravens and New England Patriots were two of the top three seeds in the AFC playoffs last season. Had New England not lost to the Miami Dolphins in the final week of the 2019 regular season, the Ravens and Patriots would have been the top two seeds. The Kansas City Chiefs would have been the third seed and would have had a very tough time getting to the Super Bowl. One year later, both the Ravens and Patriots have realized how quickly things can change in the NFL. They have both fallen noticeably from the lofty perches they had for most of the 2019 season. They will both try to bounce back on Sunday Night Football.
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Details
- Opening Line: Ravens -6.5
- Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
- Start Time: 8:20 PM ET
- Last Meeting: Ravens 37 vs. Patriots 20 (11/3/19)
|
BAL
|
-7
-110
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o43.5
-110
|
-333
|
|
| VIEW PICKS |
NE
|
+7
-110
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u43.5
-110
|
+270
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View consensus picks and notes from top betting experts for the Ravens vs. Patriots >>
Overview
The Ravens have run into a hard reality they have to accept, and then adjust to, as the 2020 season progresses: Their passing game isn’t ready to make the Super Bowl. Lamar Jackson was the NFL MVP last season, partly because of his dynamic running game but also because of his passing game. Jackson was not a fully-developed passer, but his passing in 2019 complemented the Ravens’ running game. Baltimore’s offense was balanced and efficient, and it often piled up points against opponents which were caught off guard.
This year, however, the Ravens’ offense looks like a unit which is a lot easier to scout and prepare for. Teams are trying a lot more consciously to take away the Ravens’ running game, and are forcing Jackson to beat them with the pass… and it isn’t coming together for Baltimore. Jackson isn’t busting loose for as many runs. Teams are making him win games with his throwing arm, and he is struggling as a result. Jackson has run into limitations as a passer, and this is why the Ravens are two games behind the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC North. They also miss their best offensive lineman, offensive tackle Ronnie Stanley, who is out for the season with an injury.
Baltimore just did beat the Indianapolis Colts to solidify their playoff position, but the Ravens look like the third or fourth-best team in the AFC instead of a favorite. Their passing game has to get better if they are to make a run at the Lombardi Trophy.
The New England Patriots have a losing record in mid-November, which is new for coach Bill Belichick. They just avoided what would have been an embarrassing defeat against the New York Jets. They trailed for much of the game but rallied late to win on a walk-off field goal.
Cam Newton has endured a rough season for the Patriots. Part of this is connected to his own erosion as a quarterback, but a lot of this has to do with the lack of skill-position talent in New England. There aren’t dynamic receivers. There is no Rob Gronkowski at tight end. The Patriots are several steps behind the competition in terms of having the weapons needed to overwhelm opposing defenses. It’s not just about Tom Brady leaving; it’s about wide receivers, tight ends, and running backs not making the grade, either.
Trends
- Baltimore is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games versus the AFC.
- Baltimore is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games.
- New England is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games as a home underdog.
Bottom Line
The Ravens don’t have a great offense, but they do have a great defense. They can win this game without scoring 30 points. Only 20 points might be sufficient given how fully they can put the clamps on Cam Newton and a weak Patriot offense.
Pick: Ravens -6.5
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