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Baylor Bears vs. TCU Horned Frogs Odds & Game Pick (2021)

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The No. 14 Baylor Bears (7-1, 4-1 in Big XII) will visit the TCU Horned Frogs (3-5, 1-4) on Saturday afternoon for a conference clash at Amon G. Carter Stadium. You can catch the action at 3:30 p.m. ET on FOX.

Baylor won its third straight game last week by beating the Texas Longhorns 31-24 and covering as 2.5-point favorites. Bears dual-threat quarterback Gerry Bohanon is responsible for a Big XII-high 19 touchdowns (12 passing scores and seven rushing scores). Baylor is 6-2 ATS and 5-3 O/U this season. They have played the 56th-toughest schedule, according to USA TODAY’s Jeff Sagarin.

TCU announced Sunday that it had mutually agreed to part ways with long-time head coach Gary Patterson following its 31-12 loss at Kansas State last week. Interim head coach Jerry Kill will take over for the long-tenured Patterson. The Horned Frogs are on a three-game losing skid, and all three losses came by double-digit margins. TCU is 1-6-1 ATS and 4-4 O/U with the 17th-ranked strength of schedule (Sagarin).

The Horned Frogs cruised past the Bears 33-23 last season in Baylor head coach Dave Aranda’s first year on the job. TCU outgained Baylor 247-75 in rushing yards and sacked former Bears quarterback Charlie Brewer five times.

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Details

  • Opening Line: Baylor -6
  • Current Line: Baylor -7
  • Total (Over/Under): 58.5

Action Report

There’s one-way betting traffic heading towards Baylor. According to Pregame.com, more than 90% of the handle is on the Bears plus the points at the time of writing. The major market-making sportsbook Circa Sports in Las Vegas opened Baylor as a six-point favorite. But the market has steamed Baylor up to a touchdown favorite on the consensus line.

On the other hand, nearly 70% of the cash is on the Under after bettors beat the Baylor-TCU total into its current price. For instance, Circa Sports opened this game with a 56.5-point total, and early action on the over steamed it up.

Trends

It’s tough to find actionable trends in Baylor-TCU because of their new coaching staffs. Kill will coach TCU for the first time this weekend, and Aranda is in his second season at Baylor.

For what it’s worth, the road team has covered five straight times in this series, and the over has cashed in eight of the last 10 meetings. Baylor is 7-5-2 ATS in Big XII games and 3-3-2 ATS in road games since the beginning of last season.

Handicap

This is a Plug Your Nose game where you take the home underdog and pray. On the one hand, Baylor is having a great season and could give the No. 4 Oklahoma Sooners all they can handle next week. On the other hand, this is a sandwich spot for Baylor. They are not only hosting Oklahoma for a huge game next week, but they are also coming off an impressive 31-24 home victory against Texas.

Furthermore, TCU runs the ball at the 22nd-highest rate in the country, and they ran the ball down Baylor’s throat last year. TCU should find similar success on Saturday. The Horned Frogs have the 14th-ranked rushing predicted points added (PPA) in the nation, the 12th-highest explosive rush rate, and the fifth-most open field yards. TCU’s elite ground game faces a Baylor defense that ranks 64th in rushing PPA and 103rd in explosive rush rate.

Finally, the bottom line is that fading lopsided markets is a profitable foundation for sports betting. It’s simple logic: 90% of bettors don’t beat the house. There are several reasons to like Baylor here, but the contrarian mindset wins in this racket. Let’s wait until closer to kickoff before placing a wager in hopes of getting a better number for TCU.

PICK:  TCU +7 (-110 on DraftKings)

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Geoff Clark is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Geoff, check out his archive and follow him @Geoffery_Clark.