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Bears vs. Colts NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 3)

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Introducing the Week 3 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.

Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.

Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 3 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Bears vs. Colts.

Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 3 Betting Primer>>

Chicago Bears @ Indianapolis Colts

Sides:

  • The favorites have won 13 of the Colts' last 14 games.
  • The Colts were 6-0 as favorites in 2023. 0-1 as favorites this season.
  • The Bears are 6-3-1 ATS and 6-4 straight up in their last 10 games.
  • The Bears have covered the spread in seven of their last nine games.
  • The Bears have lost 12 of their last 14 road games.

Totals:

  • Four of the last 5 Colts' games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Only once has a Richardson-led offense scored more than 10 points in the first half (six starts) with seven or fewer points in three of those contests.
  • Each of the Bears' last five games as underdogs has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Bears' last 12 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • They are 6-1-1 toward the under in their last eight games.
  • Each of the Bears’ last four road games has gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

The Colts had a rough outing in Week 2 against the Green Bay Packers. Anthony Richardson was inaccurate, and the Colts didn't lean on the ground game enough. Meanwhile, their defense couldn't stop the run, even though everybody knew it was coming.

It was a mismanaged offensive game plan by Colts HC Shane Steichen.

So even though the GB-IND first half under and game total under came through with flying colors in a projectable run-heavy game with two inaccurate QBs, the Colts didn't hold up their end of the bargain as road favorites.

I don't think that happens two weeks in a row, especially with the Colts back at home. Because as crazy as it sounds, this Bears offense in Week 3 doesn't project so much differently than the Packers did in Week 2.

Caleb Williams has not shown the pocket polish many were expecting. He is going to struggle against the Colts' heavy Cover 3 scheme.

And his propensity to take sacks - 31% pressure to sack rate, same as Bryce Young - suggests more stalled drives/3-and-outs.

Last week, GB head coach Matt LaFleur crafted a gameplan around Malik Willis and the Packers' rushing attack to beat the Colts. As much as I'd like to say Shane Waldron can just do the same, the Bears don't have the personnel or coaching to take advantage at a similar level.

If the Bears can’t run the ball on the Colts – who just placed DeForest Buckner on IR – there’s no hope for D’Andre Swift. That's my concern from the Bears side. Even if they install a run-heavy game plan, it might not be as effective, with Swift leading the charge behind a poorer offensive line.

The approach here is simple. It’s the same as last week (except the Colts cover).

The first half under, the game total under and Colts ATS. The Bears haven't scored more than 10 points in either first half this season. And I respect Chicago's defense enough to slow down the Colts offense and their big plays.

Chicago is 2-0 ATS this season. But it's by the slimmest of margins. Regression is crashing down in Week 3.

Player Props:

I said from the jump, this has to be the spot for the Bears' run game to get going. The last two RBs they have faced have gone over 150 rushing yards. I will also say to be aggressive on the Khalil Herbert rushing props. Maybe he will get more run this week. I'd expect him to take full advantage of the plus-matchup.

My Picks:

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