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Bears vs. Packers NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 11)

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Introducing the Week 1 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.

Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.

Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 1 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Bears vs. Packers.

Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 11 Betting Primer>>

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears

Sides:

  • The Bears have covered the spread in five of their last six games as favorites.
  • Chicago is 6-4-1 ATS as a favorite and 1-0 ATS as a road favorite.
  • The Bears have won eight of their last nine home games.
  • The Bears have lost nine of their last 10 road games.
  • The Bears have covered the spread in five of their last nine games.
  • The home team has covered the spread in 11 of the Bears' last 14 games.
  • The Bears are 9-7-1 ATS and 9-8 straight up in their last 17 games.
  • In each of the Bears' last nine games, their opponents have scored first.
  • The Bears are 5-11-1 ATS as road underdogs. 5-12-1 ATS on the road.
  • Chicago is 4-1 at home/neutral fields and 0-3 on the road.
  • The Packers have been the first to 15 points in their last eight games as underdogs.
  • The Packers have covered the spread in eight of their last 13 games.
  • Since 2023, the Packers have been 13-2 when they allowed fewer than 23 points on defense and 11-4 ATS. Green Bay is 4-9 ATS when they allowed more than 23 points on defense.
  • Green Bay is 2-7 as a road favorite ATS (sub-25%) and 10-10 on the money line.
  • The Packers have won each of their last 10 games against the Bears.
  • The Packers have covered the spread in each of their last 10 games against the Bears.
  • The Packers have covered the spread in the last six of their last seven games against teams with a losing record.

Totals:

  • Eight of the Bears' last nine games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Bears' last eight road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Bears' last 10 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • They are 10-4-1 under the point total in their last 14 games.
  • Thirteen of the Bears' last 19 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Packers are 18-10 toward the over since the start of 2023.
  • Eleven of the Packers' last 17 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • From Week 1-10 of the 2023 season (before Jordan Love took a major step in his progression), the Packers' first half-point totals were 10, 23, 14, 10, 10, 23, 23, 7, 27, 10, 19 and 20. In his first game back from injury, they struggled to score points in the first half. They scored 10 first-half points in Week 5, 24 first-half points in Week 6, 14 in Week 7, 13 in Week 8 and 3 in Week 9.
  • Eight of the Packers' last 13 games against NFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

This is market overreaction 101 from the public.  The Bears got smashed at home as favorites last week and opened up as 6.5-point home underdogs in a divisional matchup. We've seen the line move slightly back in favor of Chicago, which is probably the sharp play here.

The Bears just fired their offensive coordinator, Shane Waldron, and there's no doubt we will see some type of dead cat (beat cat?) bounce from their offense. The Bears (aside from last week) tend to play much better at home. Meanwhile, Green Bay is so hard to trust on the road to cover a large spread, especially against a divisional opponent.

It feels wrong to back Chicago, but there's just so much value in them as a 6.5-point home underdog.  Will Green Bay win? Probably. But will they cover? Not likely. Not to mention, the Packers also aren't out of the woods completely from the Honolulu Flu trend. Teams have yet to cover the spread the week after they played Detroit (even teams that went on a bye week directly after).

There are plenty of games to bet on this week considering sides. If you want to avoid sides entirely, just bet the under. Bears games have averaged under 38 points per game at home this season (2-2 O/U). The only overs were when the Bears scored 24-plus points.

The Bears' biggest weakness is defensively against the run, so I'd expect a heavy dose of Josh Jacobs fresh off the bye week. And with Thomas Brown taking over play-calling duties as Chicago's new interim OC, it will be an equally heavy run approach from the Bears. With the Panthers last season from Weeks 13-18, Brown orchestrated an offense that ranked -14% in pass rate over expectation.

If you are looking for points this weekend, they won't be at Soldier Field. Chicago still owns the No. 1 red-zone defense in the NFL. Green Bay ranks 29th in red-zone scoring.

Props

Caleb Williams has not attempted 30.5-plus pass attempts at home for the Bears this season. He has also only attempted 30.5-plus passes three times in nine games played this season. He has also not attempted 31 passes in any game Bears home game.

In the last two games, Christian Watson has led the Packers in targets (13) and air yards (211), but he has just seven catches for 76 yards. But fresh off the bye week, Watson is fully healthy,

In his last three games with a full allotment of snaps, Watson has at least 37 receiving yards.

My Picks

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