Bears vs. Patriots NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 10)
Introducing the Week 10 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.
Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.
Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 10 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Bears vs. Patriots.
Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 10 Betting Primer>>
New England Patriots at Chicago Bears
Sides:
- The Patriots have lost 11 of their last 12 games against teams with a losing record.
- The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in six of their last eight games.
- The Patriots have lost nine of their last 11 games.
- The Patriots, as road underdogs, are 45% ATS (7-9) and sub-50% ATS on the road in their last 20 road contests.
- In each of the Patriots’ last eight games, their opponents have been the first to 15 points.
- The Bears have covered the spread in each of their last five games as favorites.
- Chicago is 6-3-1 ATS as a favorite and 1-0 ATS as a road favorite.
- The Bears have won each of their last eight home games.
- The Bears have lost nine of their last 10 road games.
- The Bears have covered the spread in five of their last eight games.
- The home team has covered the spread in 11 of the Bears’ last 13 games.
- The Bears are 9-6-1 ATS and 9-7 straight up in their last 16 games.
- In each of the Bears’ last eight games, their opponents have scored first.
- The Bears are 5-11-1 ATS as road underdogs. 5-12-1 ATS on the road.
- Chicago is 4-0 at home/neutral fields and 0-3 on the road.
Totals:
- Nine of the last 14 Patriots' games have gone OVER the projected game total.
- Four of the Patriots' last six games have gone OVER the total points line.
- The Patriots' defense has allowed 300-plus yards in seven of nine games this season. They had allowed one team to go for 300 yards from Weeks 9-18 last season.
- New England is 12-14 toward the under in its last 26 games and 4-5 this season.
- Eight of the Bears’ last nine games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Seven of the Bears’ last eight road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Six of the Bears’ last nine games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- They are 9-4-1 under the point total in their last 13 games.
- Twelve of the Bears’ last 18 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
Overall:
What do we know about the Bears? Well, it’s a team that you don’t want to play or bet on when they go on the road. Or when they are underdogs. As a result, we faded them with success last week. This week, the script has flipped with them opening as 6.5-point favorites against the Patriots, fresh off a road loss in overtime.
The Bears have covered the spread in each of their last five games as favorites. And they have played significantly better at home during the Matt Eberflus era. Caleb Williams is 4-0 ATS as a favorite this season.
Per Next Gen Stats, Caleb Williams is 4-0 at home and 0-4 on the road in 2024.
Williams has a 105.1 passer rating at home (4th in NFL among QBs with 3+ starts at home), and a 67.2 passer rating on the road (last among 30 QBs with 3+ starts).
In fact, Williams, Bo Nix, and Jayden Daniels, as favorites this season, are a combined 12-0 ATS.
When these rookie QBs are favored to win, they are delivering.
And I can't think of a better bounce-back spot for Caleb Williams and the Bears offense. The Patriots can't stop the run or generate pressure.
According to Next Gen Stats, the Patriots defense has generated the 6th-lowest pressure rate (29.7%) and 5th-lowest sack rate (5.2%) in the league this season.
Bet on the Bears at home as favorites. Even if the line seems "wide," it's wide for a reason.
As for the total, I'd lean toward the under. The Bears biggest defense is against the deep ball, but New England doesn't have the requisite WRs to win downfield consistently. That being said, Drake Maye will push the ball downfield regardless, but it remains to be seen what success that brings.
The Patriots offense is predicated on Maye's off-script abilities, and that is where the Bears have been their best. No. 1 defense in EPA/attempts on pass attempts over 2.5 seconds.
The Bears also have the third-best red zone defense in the NFL, and the game projects to have some rainy/windy elements.
Ultimately, I think we just see the Bears steamroll New England here, with obvious advantages on offense/defense.
Props:
D.J. Moore has scored at least one touchdown in three of the Bears’ last four games as favorites.
Caleb Williams has not attempted 30 pass attempts at home for the Bears this season. He has also only attempted 30-plus passes three times in eight games played this season.
He has also not attempted 30 passes in any game where the Bears have been favored.
My Picks: