Bears vs. Rams NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 4)
Introducing the Week 4 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.
Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.
Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 4 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Bears vs. Rams.
Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 4 Betting Primer>>
Chicago Bears vs. Los Angeles Rams
Sides:
- The Bears have won each of their last six home games.
- The home team has covered the spread in seven of the Bears’ last eight games.
- The Bears are 6-4-1 ATS and 6-5 straight up in their last 11 games.
- The Rams are below 55% ATS as underdogs since the start of 2023.
- The Rams 2023 starters are 2-8 as underdogs straight up and 1-2 as underdogs this season (2-1 ATS) after their massive win against the 49ers.
- The favorites have won 13 of the Rams' last 14 games.
Totals:
- Each of the Bears’ last four games has gone UNDER the total points line. They are 7-1-1 toward the under in their last nine games.
- Ten of the Bears' last 13 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Seven of the Rams' last 10 games with their starters have gone OVER the total points line.
- The Rams are 9-7 toward the O/U in their last 16 games.
- Against offenses other than the Browns, Cardinals, Seahawks, or injury-plagued Bengals, the Rams allowed at least 20 points on defense in every game in 2023. Only four times since the start of 2023 has the defense allowed fewer than 300 yards of offense.
Overall:
What a gutsy effort from Matthew Stafford last week. The man wills his way with an undermanned-injured roster.
But it will be another tough task on the road against a strong Bears defense, where there are not many advantages in LA's favor (if at all).
Per Next Gen Stats, almost every advanced metric favor the Bears’ defense against the Rams’ offense.
The one area where the Rams’ defense might have a chance is pressure. If they can get home against Caleb Williams, that will pose problems for the Bears’ offense. We know that Chicago can't run the football.
They are looking to improve that with a potential RB change (more to come) but it's more of an OL issue. If the Bears win, it will likely come on the arm of Williams against this dreadful Rams pass defense that ranks 31st in EPA/pass play allowed.
Keenan Allen is back at practice, which can only help the Bears rookie quarterback.
When these lines first opened up early Monday, I was overly convinced to take the Rams as underdogs. But after diving deeper into the matchup, I'm less convinced that LA can duplicate last week's gutsy performance. Chicago has advantages on both sides of the ball, whereas the coaching/quarterback edge favors the Rams.
I'm not touching sides and instead opting for the over at 40.5, given how bad the Los Angeles’ defense is.
Player Props:
Roschon Johnson led the Bears with eight carries for 30 yards, followed by D'Andre Swift, who rushed 13 times for 20 yards in Week 3. Khalil Herbert contributed nine yards on four carries. Herbie has been strictly used as the Bears' short-yardage back. All of Herbert's red-zone attempts were inside the 5-yard line.
Swift did have two red-zone carries in this contest. For negative eight yards. Woof. To make matters worse for Swift, Johnson was active, earning two red-zone carries as well. Johnson played 37% of the snaps in his season debut. Re-watching this game, you could barely tell Swift is the "starter." He had another drop as well, while Johnson was soaking up targets in the second half.
It's beyond over for Swift at this point. If he couldn't get any rushing production done in this layup matchup versus the Colts, it's not going to happen for him in 2024. The Bears can't run the ball with Swift against any opponent, even the Rams. Swift hasn't even come CLOSE to 43.5 rushing yards this season, with his season "high" a staggering 30 yards back in Week 1. Woof.
This hasn't gone unnoticed by the Bears' brass. Per ESPN's Jeremy Fowler:
"Watch for Bears running back Roschon Johnson to possibly get an extended look this week. Chicago has struggled mightily to run the ball and turned to Johnson, more of a bruiser, for eight carries in Week 3 vs. the Colts. The Bears need to get downhill faster."
Expect the Bears to attack the Rams' secondary as opposed to their run defense. Interestingly enough, the one area where the Rams’ run defense is solid is in the red zone. Look for Williams to dial up passing TDs (presuming they score at all).
Given how great the matchup is for these Bears WRs, I love this as a bounce-back spot for D.J. Moore. Per Next Gen Stats, the Rams’ defense has surrendered league-highs in completions (8), yards (271), and touchdowns (5) on deep pass attempts through three weeks this season.
My Picks: