Bears vs. Saints: NFL Week 9 Odds, Picks & Player Prop Bets
I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Bears vs. Saints.
NFL Betting Primer: Bears vs. Saints
New Orleans Saints (-7.5) vs. Chicago Bears
Are the Bears contenders? Well, maybe not but their move to acquire Montez Sweat is somewhat puzzling. They traded a 2nd-round pick to acquire him, with a contract extension likely coming in the near future as well. Suggests that the Commanders are already looking ahead to 2024. More on that game later (keep scrolling).
As for this Week 9 matchup...
The Saints own a 6-2 record toward the under this year - the overs coming in their last two games. All the Colts’ games are hitting the over. And that came despite the Saints entering that game 12-0 toward the under in their previous 12 games and Derek Carr boasting a 9-3 record toward the under. Updated now to 12-2 and 9-5 respectively.
The Saints have not covered the spread in their last five games at home.
We bet on the Bears last week to cover, and that makes me gun-shy betting on them again. Thanks a lot, Velus Jones. And even though the Bears offense showed some life on offense, it was against the horrible Chargers defense that ranks 27th in overall DVOA. The Saints rank 8th. And with the Bears likely running into more trouble versus a Saints run defense that ranks fifth in expected points added versus the run, I'd be expecting a more sluggish Bears offense overall.
However, I don't feel great backing the Saints as fraudulent favorites with a touchdown and HOOK. More than happy to just go right back to the under at 41.5.
The Saints have averaged 40.1 points in games played this season, and the Bears have gone under their projected total in their last 2 of 3 games without Justin Fields.
Not to mention, the Bears' defense has played extremely well outside the first half versus the Chargers.
They still rank fourth in the fewest yards allowed per play over their last 3 contests. Adding Sweat to the mix can't hurt either.
But if I am to bet ANYTHING from this game, it’s 100% Alvin Kamara over his receptions prop. 4.5? Child, please. I know he came up just short of this number last week, but it’s just two low for a guy that is so heavily involved as a receiver. 23 catches in his last three games. Derek Carr is a check-down KING. And the Bears cannot stop RBs in the passing game. They rank 3rd in receptions, third in targets and 1st in receiving yards allowed to RBs this season.
My Picks:
- Under 41.5
My Props:
- Alvin Kamara over 4.5 receptions (+120 DraftKings Sportsbook)
What is Betting Against the Spread?
Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.
What is an Over/Under Bet?
Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.
What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.
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