Bears vs. Vikings NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 12)
Introducing the Week 12 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.
Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.
Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 12 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Bears vs. Vikings.
Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 12 Betting Primer>>
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears
Sides:
- The Bears have covered the spread in five of their last six games as favorites.
- Chicago is 6-4-1 ATS as a favorite and 1-0 ATS as a road favorite.
- The Bears have won eight of their last 10 home games.
- The Bears have lost nine of their last 10 road games.
- The Bears have covered the spread in six of their last 10 games.
- The home team has covered the spread in 12 of the Bears' last 15 games.
- The Bears are 10-7-1 ATS and 10-8 straight up in their last 18 games.
- In each of the Bears' last 10 games, their opponents have scored first.
- The Bears have lost the first quarter in each of their last five games.
- The Bears are 5-11-1 ATS as road underdogs. 5-12-1 ATS on the road.
- The Vikings have failed to cover the spread in four of their last seven games as underdogs.
- The Vikings have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 16 games. They are 7-3 ATS this season under Sam Darnold.
- The Vikings are 7-3-2 ATS as road favorites.
- As home favorites, the Vikings are 10-4 on the money line (69%) but just 6-9 ATS. They have dropped seven of their last eight home games ATS as favorites.
- All but six of the Vikings' last 24 games have been decided by eight points or less (75%).
- The Vikings have won the first quarter in eight of their last 10 games.
- The favorites have covered the spread in each of the last six games between the Vikings and Bears at Soldier Field.
- The Vikings have won each of their last four road games against the Bears.
Totals:
- Nine of the Bears' last 10 games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Seven of the Bears' last eight road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Eight of the Bears' last 11 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- They are 11-4-1 under the point total in their last 15 games.
- Fourteen of the Bears' last 20 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Eleven of the Vikings’ last 13 games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Seven of the Vikings' last 14 games have gone OVER the total points line.
- The Vikings are 7-3 toward the under this season. 3-1 toward the under at home this season, averaging fewer than 41 points per game.
- Teams averaged over 42 points in Minnesota, 3-7-1 toward the over since the start of the 2023 season.
- The Vikings are 3-9-1 toward the under in Minnesota since the start of 2023.
- Nine of the last 10 games between the Vikings and Bears at Soldier Field have gone UNDER the total points line.
Overall:
There aren’t much stronger trends this week than the under between the Vikings and Bears. It’s already been bet down to 39.5 points, which I still think is a great number to take.
Nine of the Bears' last 10 games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line. They are 11-4-1 under the point total in their last 15 games.
Eleven of the Vikings’ last 13 games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line. 7-3 toward the under this season. These two teams have a combined 6-14 O/U record.
Some might expect the Bears’ offensive success to carry over from last week, as Caleb Williams played better with new interim OC Thomas Brown calling plays.
After recording an average time to throw of 2.90 seconds to start the season, Williams averaged a 2.42 second time to throw in Week 11 against the Packers, the quickest of his career.
Williams has generated +11.6 EPA (16th-most in the NFL) with four touchdowns and no interceptions when throwing under 2.5 seconds this season, compared to -82.0 EPA and five interceptions when taking over 2.5 seconds to throw (2nd-fewest).
The Vikings have the No. 1 defense in the NFL against quick passes. The Vikings' defense has allowed the fewest passing EPA (-18.1) with a league-leading eight interceptions on throws under 2.5 seconds this season.
Take the under on Williams’ 19.5 pass completions this week. The last three QBs Minnesota has faced have been under 18 completions.
I backed the Bears last week, knowing that we would see a bump with the coach firing. But I don’t think that will last for another week.
Bears games have averaged under 38 points per game at home this season (2-2 O/U). The only overs were when the Bears scored 24-plus points.
Minnesota’s “overs” have all been against offenses like the healthy Rams, Lions, and Packers. I’m not sure the Bears (like the Jaguars/Titans the last two weeks) fall into that bucket of offenses, given that they needed a garbage time TD to push the game over the total two weeks back.
If you are looking for points this weekend, they won't be at Soldier Field. Chicago still owns the No. 1 red-zone defense in the NFL.
Take the under and bet on the Vikings as 3.5-point road favorites if you want more action.
Props
Justin Jefferson has recorded a league-high 599 receiving yards against single-high safety coverage this season, averaging 4.2 yards per route run (most in the NFL, min. 100 routes).
Jefferson’s 4.2 yards per route against single-high is more than double his average against split-safety coverage this season (1.9). Matchup: The Bears' defense has deployed single-high safety coverage at the 5th-highest rate (61.1%), generating the 4th-highest defensive success rate when doing so (59.3%).
After averaging 9.8 air yards per attempt through the first ten weeks of the season, D.J. Moore recorded a season-low -0.9 air yards per target in Week 11.
Moore caught all 3 of his targets behind the line of scrimmage for 33 yards, recording 43 yards after the catch and generating +2.7 EPA, both of which are season-highs.
Burt against the Vikings' defense, these short-quick passes are not going to generate yardage. Slam the under on Moore’s receiving yards at 49.5. He’s gone UNDER in four of his last five games.
My Picks