Bengals vs. Jaguars: NFL Week 13 Odds, Picks & Player Prop Bets
I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Bengals vs. Jaguars.
NFL Betting Primer: Bengals vs. Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-8)
The Jaguars have won seven of their last eight games. 6-1 as favorites. The Jaguars are 73% ATS this season (8-3), No.1 in the AFC. 7-1 ATS and straight up over their last 8 games. 6-1 ATS as a favorite.
The Bengals are 1-3 as underdogs this season despite facing the league's most difficult schedule.
Trevor Lawrence is coming off back-to-back elite performances, citing that his knee finally feels healthy after he got banged up a few weeks back. And I think the Bengals' horrible defense will not have many answers for the Jaguars offense.
They rank 6th-worst in points per game and last in yards allowed per game (457) over the last three weeks.
The defense is a disaster. 28th in 3rd down conversion rate allowed. 26th overall in DVOA.
Take the Jags with the superior roster and team. Completely different class than the Burrow-less Bengals and their bottom-dwelling defense.
Ten of the Bengals’ last 12 games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line.
These teams have combined for an O/U record of 10-12.
On the props side of life...
Evan Engram had 5 receptions from 8 targets with a Team-high 22% target share in Week 12 contributing 49 yards. He remains steady as they come, but still has not scored based on his ugly red-zone role. That hurts in fantasy, but not for hitting his projected betting number. Engram came through with MORE than in this last matchup, so let's go right back to him.
Especially in Week 13 against the Bengals, who just got shredded by the Steelers' tight ends. More than 44.5 receiving yards on Prizepicks for Engram in Week 13. Cincy is allowing the second-most receiving yards and second-most receptions to tight ends this season.
Bet the over on his 4.5 receptions at plus money. He's hit the over on 5-plus catches in 8 of his 11 games played this season. He has zero games with fewer than four catches. The most recent games came against tough tight end matchups. That is not the case in Week 13.
Travis Etienne carried the bulk of the rushing load with 56 yards on 20 carries, although he didn't find the end zone. The matchup versus the Bengals can cure everything for Etienne and his recent scoreless streak of three games. News flash. Trevor Lawrence won't score rushing TDs every single week. Love him in this game to go OVER his rushing yardage prop. Najee Harris went for 99 rushing yards against this defense last week. Devin Singletary went for 150 yards a few weeks before. I rest my case.
But just be aware that Etienne is on the injury report, listed as day-to-day with a chest injury.
Joe Mixon will also likely struggle to run the ball in this game. They rank 1st in run defense DVOA but they rank 5th in passing yards allowed per game (255). The Jags are allowing the fewest rushing yards allowed per game to RBs. And the Bengals are not feeding Mixon in the wake of Joe Burrow's injury. Just 10 touches a week ago. 8 carries. Woof.
The Bengals just want to throw the ball - +11% pass rate over expectation in Jake Browning's first start last week.
Every QB the Jaguars have faced this season has gone OVER their projected passing yards total except for Kenny Pickett (injured) and Will Levis (who couldn't complete a deep pass to save his life) in Week 11. The Jaguars' defense ranks third in pass rate faced on defense.
Fully buy into Browning soaring over his passing yardage props even in a losing effort.
The Jaguars are also allowing the 4th-most fantasy points per game to opposing perimeter WRs. Buy low on Ja'Marr Chase to have a solid statistical output.
Seems like a potential spot for a sneaky over at suppressed number. But it's another prime-time game. And both teams boast top-12 red-zone defenses. When in doubt go toward the under or just bet the Jaguars offensive team total at 23.5 points.
But as I have alluded the Bengals' defense is in a bad spot. And that's going unnoticed because 3 of their last 6 games have hit the over. Their last four of five games have all surpassed 41.5 points.
The Bengals have allowed the most explosive plays on defense (highest average depth of target faced) this season including 50-plus receiving yards to 10 different opposing WRs over the last six games.
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My Picks
- Jaguars -8.5
- Jaguars over 23.5 points
- Under 38.5
My Props
- Evan Engram over 42.5 receiving yards
- Evan Engram over 4.5 receptions
- Travis Etienne Jr. over 63.5 rushing yards
- Joe Mixon under 45.5 rushing yards
- Ja'Marr Chase over 57.5 receiving yards
- Jake Browning over 218.5 passing yards
What is Betting Against the Spread?
Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.
What is an Over/Under Bet?
Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.
What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.
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