Bengals vs. Raiders NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 9)

Introducing the Week 9 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.

Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.

Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 9 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Bengals vs. Raiders.

Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 9 Betting Primer>>

Las Vegas Raiders @ Cincinnati Bengals

Sides:

• Joe Burrow is 17-5 against the spread following a loss. Joey Covers.
• The Bengals are 14-6 ATS on the road.
• The Bengals have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games against teams with losing records.
• The Bengals have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 10 games against AFC North opponents.
• The Bengals have won 13 of their last 20 home games.
• The Bengals are 9-7-1 ATS as home favorites and 12-7 straight up at home.
• The Bengals have failed to cover the spread in their last four home games.
• In five of the Bengals’ last six games, the first score has been a Bengals Touchdown.
• The Raiders have covered the spread in eight of their last 12 games.
• The Raiders are 12-5-1 ATS over their last 18 games.
• LV is 13-6-1 ATS at home (67%). They are 5-3-1 as home underdogs ATS but just 2-6 straight up.
• The Raiders have covered the spread in five of their last seven road games.
• The Raiders have lost nine of their last 11 road games.

Totals:

• Five of the Bengals’ last seven games have gone OVER the total points line.
• Eight of the Bengals’ last 11 games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
• 10 of the Bengals’ last 13 games have gone OVER the total points line
• Six of the Bengals’ last seven home games have gone OVER the total points line.
• Ten of the Raiders’ last 18 games have gone UNDER the total points line, and they are 14-10 toward the under.
• Five of the Raiders’ last eight road games have gone UNDER the total points line per DraftKings Sportsbook.
• Five of the Raiders' last six home games have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

Although the betting trends aren't super convincing for the Bengals as touchdown home favorites (9-7-1 ATS), this team knows they are running out of time.

And what's more convincing, in my estimation, is that the Bengals under Joe Burrow typically rebound. 2-1 ATS coming off losses. Burrow is 17-5 against the spread following a loss.

The Raiders have been solid ATS as road underdogs (62% ATS, 8-5), but I still feel this team is very overmatched against the Bengals.

Even though they have stayed within striking distance against the Rams/Chiefs the last two weeks, I think this is where they will be fully exposed. Those two offenses don't have the same firepower as the Bengals’.

And Cincy's defense has improved in the last month or so against subpar QBs like Deshaun Watson and Daniel Jones. I'd fully bucket Gardner Minshew into that tier of QB. Spoiler: when the Bengals have played "bad" quarterbacks this season, 3-1 toward the under (Andy Dalton is the one exception).

Eventually, the Bengals will have to win a game at home, and this seems like the right spot to do so.

As for the total, I am leaning toward the under at 46.5 points. Raiders road games lean toward the under-five of the last eight have gone under-and the Bengals’ offense isn't the same without Tee Higgins, who missed last week with an injury. In two of the three games without Higgins, the Bengals have scored fewer than 20 points.

Starting tackle Orlando Brown Jr. is also dealing with an injury for the Bengals.

When I projected this game out, it came closer to 44.5 points, providing some value toward the under.

Props

The Raiders are the only team with multiple running backs with fewer than -30 rushing yards over expected this season, with Alexander Mattison (-34) and Zamir White (-39) leading the way. The Bengals’ defense has allowed +119 RYOE to running backs this season, the 7th-most in the NFL.

According to Next Gen Stats, Brock Bowers leads the NFL in receptions and has the most receptions by a tight end through eight games all-time (52).

Bowers would be the youngest player in NFL history to lead the NFL in receptions.

The last six tight ends the Bengals have faced this season have gone OVER their reception prop.

Jakobi Meyers has at least 4.5 catches in four straight games this season and in every game since the Raiders moved on from Davante Adams.  The Bengals have been the worst defense against No. 2 WRs this season.

My Picks

• Bengals -7
• Under 46.5
• Brock Bowers OVER 6.5 receptions
• Jakobi Meyers OVER 4.5 receptions