Bengals vs. Ravens NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 5)
Introducing the Week 5 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.
Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.
Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 5 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Bengals vs. Ravens.
Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 5 Betting Primer>>
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals
Sides:
- Lamar Jackson is 33-34-0 (49%) ATS as a favorite.
- Baltimore is 12-5 on the money line as home favorites. But just 7-11 ATS as home favorites.
- Baltimore is 71% ATS (12-5) on the road in the last two seasons. They are 8-4 ATS (67%) as road favorites.
- Joe Burrow is 64% ATS as an underdog
- The Bengals are 12-6 ATS on the road.
- The Bengals have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games against AFC North opponents.
- The Bengals have lost four of their last five games against AFC opponents.
- The Bengals have won 13 of their last 18 home games.
- The Bengals are 9-6-1 ATS as home favorites and 12-5 straight up at home.
Totals:
- The majority of the 2023 Ravens games that went over came at home (six of their last nine), but they tended to be against better offenses.
- The Ravens are 3-1 toward the over this season.
- The Ravens have gone OVER in six of the last nine games (seven of the previous 12).
- Each of the last four games between the Ravens and Bengals has gone OVER the total points line.
- Eight of the Bengals’ last 10 games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Seven of the Bengals' last eight games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
Overall:
We've got a classic AFC North slugfest between the Ravens and Bengals on our hands. We know that in marquee matchups, the Ravens are going to bring the heat. As for the Bengals, we know that their offense will show up. But to what level of production remains to be seen? Cincinnati has struggled against his AFC North rivals in recent years. Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the Bengals have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games against AFC North opponents.
Specifically, against the Ravens, it's been a real struggle. Since 2022, the Bengals are just 1-3 against Baltimore with Joe Burrow under center. And that wasn't against a Lamar Jackson-led Ravens team. In fact, we've only had two full Jackson vs Burrow games in the last two seasons. Both games settled by less than three points, while the Bengals went 1-1 overall (2-0 ATS).
In all four games, Burrow hasn't thrown for more than 225 passing yards.
This matchup between two strong offenses projects for a massive total. Hence the line set close to 50 points. The only on-paper matchup where we won't see offense fireworks is when the Bengals try to run the ball. And it's more of an "if" they decide to run it. I think they will not.
Cincy ranks fifth in pass rate over expectation this season. The offensive line has been great so far this season, keeping Burrow out of harm's way. The Bengals QB has been the second-least pressured quarterback this season (19.5%).
Why run the ball against the Ravens run defense that ranks first in the fewest rushing yards allowed per game (57.8)?
Cincinnati will attack the Baltimore pass defense - fourth-most passing yards allowed per game - to score points and force the Ravens out of their run-heavy nature they have fully embraced the last two weeks. But that's not to say taking Henry out - easier said than done - to face last year's reigning MVP in a dropback pass game will generate a victory. Derrick Henry rushing or Lamar Jackson throwing. Pick your poison.
These games tend to be tight, so I'll stay away from the sides. It's all about the total - where all signs, trends, and data points suggest the over even at 50.5 points.
I only see this going under the total if Henry just bleeds the clock running the ball. First down after first down, without any game-breaking long runs.
Player Props:
The Ravens boast the best run defense in the NFL. No top running back they have faced has eclipsed 45 rushing yards against them this season. With Chase Brown taking a larger portion of the work in the Bengals' backfield, Moss doesn't have the volume or efficiency to get over 40.5 rushing yards. Brown had a great Week 4 but had just two carries in the first half. We have seen one starting RB the Ravens have faced this season surpass nine carries.
Last week, I cited that the Ravens receivers had suppressed betting prop lines because of the severe lack of passes from Lamar Jackson in Week 3. It was the LOWEST number of attempts by the Ravens quarterback in any game in his ENTIRE career where he played the full game. Welp, Week 4 was the fifth-lowest of his career.
The lack of passing volume in Baltimore will eventually regress to the mean in games where the Ravens aren't so fortunate to play from ahead. They are facing the Bengals on the road in Week 5, so you could see the passing game forced into more volume. Flowers is an easy-buy-low prop as a result. Team-high 26% target share while leading the team in receptions.
I don't know when they will drop, but keep an eye on rookie tight end Erick All and his receiving props. He's had four catches in all his games this season. The Ravens’ defense ranks 31st in yards, targets, and catches to tight ends this season.
My Picks: