Best 2022-23 NFL Futures to Bet
The Super Bowl ended just over a week ago and so after having some time to digest this past season, it’s time to look towards the next. I’ve got three futures bets, all in different markets, that I see value on. When betting futures this far out, it’s important to remember that you are tying your money up for a long time and these markets tend to have a fairly high hold. So if you’re betting futures now, you need to have a big edge.
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Jacksonville Jaguars to win the AFC South (+1200)
Jacksonville to win the AFC South gained a lot of steam last preseason as the odds moved from around this range all the way down to +700. While the 2021 Jaguars were an absolute disaster under Urban Meyer, it netted them the #1 overall pick, a good head coach, and the second-most cap space in the NFL. While Trent Baalke is still there, Jacksonville hired Rick Spielman for an upper-level front office job, so I have much more confidence in the Jaguars to spend their capital wisely this offseason. The Jaguars have a quarterback with a ceiling as high as any in the league so if they can use their draft capital and cap space to add a few playmakers, bolster the offensive line, and upgrade their defense to a competent one, I like the prospects of this team. The AFC South is one of the weakest divisions in the league as Jacksonville could potentially have the best quarterback in the division next year. Tennessee will rely on an aging Derrick Henry and Ryan Tannehill, Indianapolis has a question mark at quarterback and lost their great defensive coordinator, and Houston is a dumpster fire. Doug Pederson will bring competence to this team and with the ceiling that Lawrence, their draft capital, and cap space present, Jacksonville could be a sneaky good team next year.
Lamar Jackson to win MVP (+2800)
Like the Jaguars, the Ravens were another team who saw their season fall far short of expectations. For Baltimore, this was a result of terrible injury luck rather than just being bad. Here’s a shortlist of key players that were injured and missed multiple games this season: Lamar Jackson, JK Dobbins, Gus Edwards, Rashod Bateman, DeShon Elliott, Marlon Humphrey, Marcus Peters, Ronnie Stanley, and Derek Wolfe. I’m guessing I missed a few guys in that list as well. The point is, while this was Lamar’s worst season since his rookie year, the Ravens being battered by injuries can explain a lot of it. For a player with as much talent and ability to produce as Lamar, he’s just way too low in the MVP odds. He’s behind Derrick Henry and tied with Jonathan Taylor which is ridiculous. Baltimore will be better, Lamar will be better, and it’s hard for me to imagine you’ll see Lamar any lower in MVP odds than he is right now.
Pittsburgh Steelers to win the Super Bowl (+6000)
For the past two seasons, I’ve been all aboard the “fade the Steelers†train, so this is a little weird for me to type up. Pittsburgh managed to scratch and claw their way to the playoffs despite having the lowest graded quarterback in the league. The Steelers have a talented roster and a great head coach that have shown they can drag a bad quarterback to success. Pittsburgh has a young group of playmakers with Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, and Pat Freiermuth. The offensive line was expected to be a disaster last year but was surprisingly not too bad. That is a young group as well that we can project to improve. Pittsburgh’s defense is a bit overrated in my opinion, but they’ve got arguably the best defensive player in the league, T.J. Watt, one of the best interior players, Cameron Heyward, and solid players across the defense behind them. Pittsburgh has the 10th most cap space and a decent amount of draft capital to improve on this, however, the big question is what are they going to do at quarterback? The Steelers are a logical landing spot for several of the top quarterbacks available.
According to the DraftKings sportsbook, they are +1200 to land Aaron Rodgers (5th-highest odds), +900 to land DeShaun Watson (3rd-highest), and +1200 to land Russell Wilson (3rd-highest). Either of those three quarterbacks landing in Pittsburgh makes them immediate title contenders and their Super Bowl odds will skyrocket. It’s a long shot this happens, but that’s why this is priced at +6000. So while Big Ben is gone, now is the time to bet on the Steelers.
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Jack O’Brien is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Jack, check out his archive and follow him @JackOBrienNFL.