Best Bet for 2021 NBA Champion: Lakers, Nets, Warriors?

The NBA’s extended 2019-20 season just ended on Sunday, but FanDuel Sportsbook hasn’t wasted any time in posting the odds for next season’s championship. After the Los Angeles Lakers defeated the Miami Heat, FanDuel pens LeBron and the Lakers as the favorites to win it all again, calling for a repeat.

 What are the chances that the Lakers repeat? LeBron has been to nine of the past 10 NBA Finals, but mind you, the Western Conference is reloaded for this upcoming season, and there’s a new No. 1 in the East. It’s just not who you might expect, or better yet, who you might have forgotten about. 

Here are my top three bets to repeat as the NBA Champion in the 2020-21 season.

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Los Angeles Lakers: +370

The Lakers won their first NBA Title since 2012, and LeBron called it a year ago. The Lakers’ last title in 2012 featured the late-great Kobe Bryant, who this title was dedicated to, by now-Laker legends LeBron James and Anthony Davis.

The superstar duo of James and Davis head into 2020-21 on max deals, but as for the rest of the Lakers’ roster, it may look a little different. Whether or not Jared Dudley, Dwight Howard, Markieff Morris, J.R. Smith, or Dion Waiters will be back is unknown. All five players will likely be gone, as 2021-22 will be a monumental year for the team. The only player signed through 2021-22 is LeBron, while there are cap holds on 11 other players per Spoctrac.

Next season, the Lakers are the favorites (+370) to repeat, but they will have an abundance of teams competing for their spot. Free agency will dictate odds and what to expect headed into a shortened 2020-21 season. If LA can grab some shooters such as Davis Bertans, Danilo Gallinari, or Evan Fournier in free agency, I love their chances to repeat next season.

Howard, Alex Caruso, Rajon Rondo, and Avery Bradley are all signed for a combined $15.7 million. That’s almost the equivalent to Danny Green’s contract with L.A. a season after they signed him from Toronto. Green has now won a championship with three different teams, Rondo has two rings with two teams, and Howard got his first, which helps his Hall of Fame career. Expect the Lakers to retain two of the three at least.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and JaVale McGee outplayed their contracts during the regular-season and signed one-year deals, but McGee folded in the postseason. Avery Bradley is on a player option, and he was absent for the entire postseason run, opting out because of COVID. The Lakers could see all three players opt-out and chase the money rather than take a reduced role in season two with the Lakers. Davis is the only Laker I am confident will return for a long-term deal or at least two years.

Here’s a look at the returning players under contract for the Lakers and what the 10-man roster could look like. I have to count Bradley, KCP, and McGee out until they decide to work out a long-term deal with the Lakers. I doubt the Lakers open the season with Dwight Howard as the starting center, so for now, I’m expecting a smaller rotation until L.A. makes some free agency moves and drafts.

POSITION NAME POINTS REBOUNDS ASSISTS
PG LeBron James 25.3 7.8 10.2
SG Avery Bradley 8.6 2.3 1.3
SF Danny Green 8.0 3.3 1.3
PF Kyle Kuzma 12.8 4.5 1.3
C Anthony Davis 26.1 9.3 3.2
6 Rajon Rondo 7.1 3.0 5.0
7 Alex Caruso 5.5 1.9 1.9
8 Dwight Howard 7.5 7.3 0.7
9 Quinn Cook 5.1 1.2 1.1
10 Talen Horton-Tucker 5.7 1.2 1.0

The Lakers suffered from streaky shooting all season from their role players, particularly in the postseason. Caruso, Rondo, Kyle Kuzma, and Markieff Morris, plus a few more players, scored 10 or fewer points per game but played between 18 and 25 minutes. All four of the role players shot 45% or worse in the Lakers’ 21 playoff games, but L.A. played superior defense overall, fueling their championship run.

Even with another strange season approaching, the Lakers will need to make moves. They won’t survive a grueling Western Conference with just LeBron and A.D. — LeBron’s age warrants load management, and Davis’ injury history gives him that pass as well. How the Lakers manage their money will be interesting, but the unit worked in its first year together, especially on the defensive end.

During the regular season and postseason, the Lakers allowed the fourth-fewest points or better, and they were top-two in rebounds. L.A. finished 21st in three-point percentage (34.9%), first in field goal percentage (48%), and 11th in points per game (113.4). It’s true, defense win championships, but if the Lakers want to repeat, they’ll need more offense the second time around.

Brooklyn Nets: +1100

The arrival of Kyrie Irving already pushed the Brooklyn Nets into competition for the Eastern Conference Finals, but they weren’t quite ready to compete with the 76ers, Bucks, Heat, or Raptors yet. Irving already has an NBA title to his name, and now the Nets will get a healthy Kevin Durant and a new head coach. That coach, Steve Nash, has seven more regular-season MVPs than Irving and Durant combined.

In Durant’s last healthy season, he averaged 26.0 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 5.9 assists with the Warriors (18-19). That marked a career-high in assists for Durant. Since Nash has the third-most assists all-time (10,335), look for Durant’s assist totals to increase. Also, with Deandre Jordan and Jarrett Allen back next season, Durant can focus on scoring rather than rebounding.

Irving averaged a career-high 27.4 points in 20 games with Brooklyn in addition to 6.4 assists and 5.2 rebounds over 32.9 minutes per game. Irving recorded seven 30-point games last season, five games of 37 or more, three of 45 or more, and two of 50 or more. Combine that with Durant’s 21 30-point games in 2018-19 with the Warriors and endless games of 20-plus points, and you have the most dynamic and dangerous scoring duo in the league.

Kyrie and K.D. will be the Eastern Conference version of the Lakers with two franchise stars and a roster full of role players. For the Nets, Spencer Dinwiddie, Caris LeVert, Joe Harris, Taurean Prince, Jordan, and Allen are all acceptable and more than capable role players. They’re arguably better than the Lakers’ core players, which makes this Nets team more valuable than their current +1100 line.

That number will be far lower once the season actually starts and if they sign a player or two in free agency. Here’s a look at the expected best 10-man rotation for the Nets in 2020-21 with the possibility of a few different starting lineups. Dinwiddie or Harris could be the sixth man, and dangerous ones at that. It’s also unclear which center they’ll start over the other.

POSITION NAME POINTS REBOUNDS ASSISTS
PG Kyrie Irving 27.4 6.4 5.2
SG Spencer Dinwiddie 20.6 3.5 6.8
SF Caris LeVert 18.7 4.2 4.4
PF Kevin Durant + 26.0 6.4 5.9
C Jarrett Allen 11.1 9.6 1.9
6 Joe Harris 14.5 4.3 2.1
7 Taurean Prince 12.1 6.0 1.8
8 Deandre Jordan 8.3 10.0 2.0
9 Garrett Temple * 10.3 3.5 2.5
10 Timothe  Luwawu-Cabarrot 7.8 2.7 0.6

*contract not guaranteed
+2018-19 stats

If you’re attempting to identify who will compete with the Nets in the Eastern Conference, consider the following: The 76ers hired Mark Jackson and still can’t win away from Philly. Milwaukee and Giannis couldn’t get over the hump in their most manageable postseason schedule. Toronto couldn’t handle an all-around Boston team with the best chance to compete with the Nets. Then you have the Miami Heat, who will have targets on their back and no longer considered underdogs to anybody in the league.

Honestly, I would give the Nets the best chance to win the Eastern Conference out of any team given Irving and K.D.’s championship experience and pedigree. The Bucks (+600) are the only team in the East with lower odds to win the Finals. The Celtics (+1200), Heat (+1500), Raptors (+1600), and 76ers (+3200) are all behind the Nets for the top-six in the East, and they’re the only squads worth considering.

Golden State Warriors: +1100

Who would have thought that a season after winning the NBA Finals with Kevin Durant, the Warriors would finish in last place during the regular season and earn the second selection in the NBA Draft lottery? Not me, in fact, they were one of my favorites to win it all without K.D. Unfortunately, injuries to their big three left Golden State depleted all around.

Steph Curry played only five games, Draymond Green 43, and Klay Thompson zero. That’s a recipe for disaster, and the D’Angelo Russell project lasted 33 games before the Warriors swung a trade with the Minnesota Timberwolves for Andrew Wiggins. In Wiggins’ 12 games with the Warriors, he averaged 19.4 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 3.6 assists over a team-high 33.6 minutes per game.

A lineup featuring Curry, Green, Thompson, and Wiggins is going to be exciting. There’s a high enough ceiling to reach the NBA Finals and win, but they’re one injury away from being a bottom-seed in a competitive Western Conference. Golden State has Curry, Thompson, and Wiggins all on max deals, so their chances of doing much in free agency are slim to none.

Golden State lacks talent other than their core four. The main rotation will feature Ky Bowman, Marquese Chriss, Damion Lee, Kevon Looney, Eric Paschall, and Jordan Poole. While that’s not very impressive, Curry, Green, and Thompson are capable of listing this group to a postseason berth and beyond.

POSITION NAME POINTS REBOUNDS ASSISTS
PG Steph Curry 20.8 5.2 6.6
SG Klay Thompson + 21.5 3.8 2.4
SF Andrew Wiggins 19.4 4.7 3.1
PF Draymond Green 8.0 6.2 6.2
C Kevon Looney 3.4 3.7 1.0
6 Eric Paschall 14.0 4.6 2.1
7 Glenn Robinson III 12.9 4.7 1.8
8 Ky Bowman 7.4 2.7 2.9
9 Jordan Poole 8.8 2.4 2.1
10 Marquese Chriss 9.3 6.2 1.9

+2018-19 stats

I’m not sold on this rotation as a championship one, but I wasn’t sold on the Lakers entirely, either. Once the postseason begins, benches shorten up, and sometimes, like we saw Miami do in Game 5 against L.A., teams play a seven-man rotation. The Warriors still have time, but they will need a few upgrades on the bench and some more postseason or veteran experience.

Steve Kerr has had nothing but top of the line talent in the starting lineup and off the bench during his tenure, but this bench is definitely the most questionable. The Warriors hold the fifth-best odds to win the title, and they’re third in the West behind the Lakers (+370) and Clippers (+450). Chances are, you could get better odds on them during the regular season, and given the injury history over the last year, they are riskier selections than the Lakers and Nets, in my opinion.

Honorable Mentions

If you’re looking for more teams to win the 2020-21 NBA Championship outside of the ones mentioned, three more squads to consider are the Boston Celtics (+1200), Houston Rockets (+2100), and Philadelphia 76ers (+3200).

The Celtics were outed by the Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals while the Rockets were bumped by the eventual Western Conference champion for the third-straight year. The 76ers hired Doc Rivers, and that’s enough to bump them into consideration, especially with five coaches making it to the NBA Finals in their first or second year as a new coach over the last six years. Ty Lue (CLE), Steve Kerr (GSW), Nick Nurse (TOR), and Frank Vogel (LAL) all won, while David Blatt (CLE) was the lone loser, falling to Kerr’s Warriors.

Some teams I would fade for 2020-21 champion are the L.A. Clippers (+450), Milwaukee Bucks (+600), and Miami Heat (+1500). The Clippers’ loss of Doc Rivers will switch up a lot in L.A., and whether or not their roster looks the same remains to be seen. The Bucks failed to get over the hump this postseason, and Giannis’ absence makes them a wildcard with the Nets coming into form next season. For the Heat, if you got them anytime before the postseason started, you made a ton of money, but I just don’t see a repeat performance next season.

The cat is out of the bag when it comes to Miami, and the East will be a much-improved conference next season. I’d take the Lakers or Nets to win the championship until more moves are made during free agency.

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Vaughn Dalzell is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Vaughn, check out his archive or follow him @VaughnDalzell.