Best Bet for NBA MVP: Anthony Davis, Luka Doncic, Kevin Durant?

The NBA’s preseason is underway, and the regular season is set to start December 22nd, making it just a few short months since the NBA Finals occurred. With a week left to get your preseason bets in, the MVP conversation is set to become a wide-open race in 2020-21 as the chances are Milwaukee Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo doesn’t win for the third-straight season.

Excluding the Greek Freek from this article, there are three players I consider my favorites to win the MVP award. You can check out BettingPros odds consensus to get the best odds for your player props and futures bets. Let’s get to it.

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Kevin Durant, Brooklyn Nets +2000 on BetMGM

Kevin Durant’s regular-season debut is so close, and the hype around him will be at an all-time high once he gets rolling. In his last healthy season, KD averaged 26.0 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 5.9 assists with the Warriors. His 5.9 assists were the most in his career, and he’s now averaged 25 points and six rebounds per game in 11-straight seasons and 20 or more points in all 12.

Durant played his first game vs. the Washington Wizards in the preseason, finishing 5-of-12 shooting for 15 points, 3 rebounds, and 3 assists in 24 minutes.

“It felt great, you know, to be back in a routine and get back on the floor and feel like a player again,” Durant said in a post-game interview. “I didn’t think I played great. I felt I had some solid moments.”

Durant has an amazing supporting cast around him that will allow him to average 25 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists per game. Obviously, he and Kyrie Irving are one of the best 1-2 punches in all of basketball, then adding Caris LeVert, Spencer Dinwiddie, Jarrett Allen, Deandre Jordan, and Joe Harris is a remedy for success. Durant will be the team’s focal point despite Irving being the one making a majority of the headlines, and this team’s depth is a positive sign for Durant’s MVP bid.

Versus the Atlantic Conference, Durant has played 93 games and averaged 27.0 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 4.1 assists in 36.8 minutes per game over his career. His 118 offensive rating versus the conference is his second-highest, and his 30.3% usage rate is the third-most. Despite those impressive numbers, his 93 games vs. the conference are his lowest number of games versus any conference.

Durant will most likely need the Nets to own the No. 1 or 2 seed in the East to earn MVP, and a scoring title wouldn’t hurt his chances either. Irving will take away from the opportunity to average 30 points per game, but Durant could make up for his lack of 30-point games with passing, highlights, and team success. It would be quite the comeback story for Durant, and if he’s healthy, he’s almost a shoo-in for a top-five finish.

Durant won NBA MVP in 2013-14 with the Oklahoma City Thunder, and he can become the only active player to earn MVP on two different teams joining LeBron James.

Anthony Davis, Los Angeles Lakers +900 on DraftKings

AD is an interesting pick because he plays alongside LeBron James, but after what he did in the postseason, it’s hard to ignore his MVP talent. While LeBron shares similar odds to AD (+900), James would become the oldest MVP in league history if he won the award. With his chances of winning MVP fading season by season, is it possible Davis can be the first player to win MVP while being teammates with LeBron? Let’s examine why that’s possible this season.

In his first season with the Lakers, Davis averaged 26.1 points, 9.3 rebounds, 3.2 assists, and 2.3 blocks finishing as the runner-up to Giannis for Defensive Player of the Year. Davis earned 14 1st-place votes (2nd), 30 second-place votes (3rd), and 44 third-place votes (2nd) for a total of 200, trailing Giannis’432 and beating out back-to-back winner, Rudy Gobert (187).

During the 2020 postseason, AD averaged 27.7 points, 9.7 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.4 blocks, and 1.2 steals in 21 games. In the NBA Finals, he recorded 25.0 points, 10.7 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 2.0 blocks, and 1.3 steals. AD recorded three double-doubles in the Finals and added two more games with nine boards. Davis’ three-point game also grew as a member of the Lakers. He made (1.2) and attempted (3.5) career-highs last season in addition to free-throw makes (7.2), attempts (8.5), and percentage (84.6%).

The Lakers return as the favorites to win the Western Conference and the NBA Finals, helping Davis’ case for MVP. After a COVID-riddled season, the NBA will certainly be more lenient on load management, and LeBron will be a candidate as he turns 37-years-old. Davis had his moments last year but played 62 of the Lakers’ 71 games in 2019-20 and all 21 playoff contests. Davis finished sixth for MVP voting last year with 82 total votes, including five for third-place. Heading into 2020-21 fully healthy and alongside LeBron, don’t ignore Davis for MVP; he’s capable of taking it home one time in his career.

Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks +410 on FanDuel Sportsbook

Doncic is the most appealing player to win, and the favorite as that may come to the surprise of many. He lit it up in his second season, finding ways to improve on 21.2 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 6.0 assists as a rookie. In his sophomore campaign, Doncic recorded 28.8 points, 9.4 rebounds, and 8.8 assists per game.

He finished sixth in scoring, 17th in rebounding, and third in assists per game this past season. Doncic joined Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and LeBron James as the only players to rank top 30 in scoring, rebounding, and assists per game. Doncic recorded 39 double-doubles (10th) and 17 triple-doubles in 2019-20, which led the league. As a rookie, Doncic recorded 24 double-doubles and eight triple-doubles, so he impressively more than doubled his triple-double outage.

The European superstar finished third in Most Improved Player voting (101) behind Bam Adebayo (295) and Jayson Tatum (326) this past season while earning 200 votes for MVP, finishing in fourth place. At 21-years-old, he’s already building an impressive resume, and with the Dallas Mavericks on the rise and building the team around him, he’s going to be in the MVP race for years to come.

This bet could be a year too early for Doncic, but he’s going to be put up the numbers to put him in MVP consideration. Another year alongside Kristaps Porzingis will allow the two to grow and not to mention the possible improvement of their team in an elite Western Conference. The odds favor Doncic, but the quality of his team will be the detriment. Keep Doncic in your mind for next season, as this will be another highlight-tape filled season by the third-year star.

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Vaughn Dalzell is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Vaughn, check out his archive or follow him @VaughnDalzell.